York Ebor 2019 – Lowther Stakes Trends & Preview
Published on 22/08/19
The Group 2 Lowther Stakes (Thursday 22 August, 1.55pm) is the opening race on the second day of the 2019 Ebor Festival at York. It is open to 2-year-old fillies and takes places over 6-furlongs. The race was established in 1946 and popular recent winners have included Tiggy Wiggy and Fairyland.
Check out our 10-year-trends, runner-by-runner guide, and free tips for the Lowther Stakes 2019.
Lowther Stakes 10-Year-Trends
The draw has had little significance in the last decade, with winners coming from as low as stall-two and as high as stall-10, Indeed, the only two stalls between one and 10 that a winner hasn’t been boxed in are one and six.
Winners have had between one and five runs, with their last run coming between six and 64 days earlier. Eight Lowther Stakes winners had won their last race and eight winners had won at least twice.
The 2010 and 2011 Lowther Stakes winners were returned at 11/1, but the seven winners since then have been no bigger than 9/2. William Haggas is the only trainer to have trained two winners in the last decade.
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Lowther Stakes Runner-By-Runner Guide 2019
Sent-off at 25/1 on her first two starts in Ireland when she finished fourth and third. Ran even better at Royal Ascot when second in the Albany Stakes at the same price but finished last at Newmarket’s July Meeting behind the top-class Raffle Prize. Has since landed a small race back in Ireland but she hasn’t got the profile of a typical Lowther Stakes winner.
Flippa The Strippa
Won two of her first three starts but has since struggled to go the pace at Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood. The way she stayed on late in both those races suggested she was ready for a step up to 6 furlongs, but she needs the extra furlong to bring about a fair bit of improvement if she is to trouble the market leaders.
Another filly that won her second and third starts but she’s not looked as good on good-to-soft ground in better-company on her last two runs. Quicker ground may aid her chances but she’s another that needs to improve.
Has impressed in winning four of her five starts, and she was unlucky to finish fourth at Royal Ascot where she was the first horse home of those drawn low. She has won twice since then, landing a gamble at Glorious Goodwood last time. She’s officially the highest-rated filly in the field but it’s slightly worrying that her sire Cable Bay ran below expectations on his two runs at York.
Living In The Past
Won her second start before being pitched into a Group 3 at Ascot, where she finished ¾-length Behind the re-opposing Under The Stars. She’s no better off here and, as she’s had one more run than Under The Stars, there’s no obvious reason why she should finish in front of her this time.
Moon Of Love
Ran okay to be third behind Liberty Beach on her racecourse debut but then flopped at a big price at Royal Ascot. She’s hard to fancy on that evidence but is less experienced that a few of these.
Won on her second start and the runner-up that day has won since. It’s a bit surprising that her trainer runs her and the unbeaten Under The Stars, and any money for her would be interesting with Oisin Murphy an eye-catching jockey booking.
Finished second, fourth, and fifth in group races on her last three starts but she’s yet to break her duck. Aidan O’Brien did train last year’s winner Fairyland, but Precious Moments doesn’t currently look in the same league as that multiple Group race winning filly.
Under The Stars
Made a big impression when winning by 3-lengths after being slowly away on debut and that form has been boosted by the runner-up winning twice since. Despite being 25/1 at Royal Ascot and being slowly away from the lowest draw, she again managed to come from last to first to win going away. Those tactics aren’t as easy to pull off at York but, with more improvement likely after two runs, she’s the one to beat.
William Haggas has won the Lowther Stakes twice in the last seven years and this once-raced daughter of Dabirsim is the unknown quantity of the race. Neither the second or third have run since but, as she looked very green that day and won going away, she could be anything.
Lowther Stakes Summary 2019
As eight of the last 10 winners of the Lowther Stakes have won twice before enjoying success in the race, there’s a case for discounting the chances of Celtic Beauty, Living In The Past, Precious Moments, Nasaiym, and Moon Of Love. It’s also possible to discount the once-raced Wejdan on that score, though Threading won in 2017 after winning her only previous race.
Good Vibes and Flippa The Strippa have quite a bit to find on ratings, though the latter could improve for her first run at 6-furlongs.
That leaves us with the likely market leaders Liberty Beach and Under The Stars, which isn’t a bad thing considering the last seven winners have all been no bigger than 9/2. The experienced Liberty Beach will be a tough nut to crack but Under The Stars created a real impression in winning her two starts, despite being slowly away on both occasions. Hopefully, if she breaks more professionally this time, that will allow her to deliver her telling turn of foot from much closer to the pace.
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Under The Stars @ 5.50 BetVictor, SkyBet, Paddy Power
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