It’s fair to say that the Wimbledon Men’s Quarter-Finals were absolutely carnage with Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic departing after struggling with injury. That will hopefully be good news for outright selection Roger Federer, but there also looks to be two decent bets in the semi-finals.
Marin Cilic vs Sam Querrey
Best Odds: Cilic 1/3, Querrey 49/18
A look at the head-to-head record of Cilic and Querrey suggests that this should be a piece of cake for Marin Cilic, who leads 4-0, but a closer look suggests this will be anything but easy for him. Their last meeting came in 2015 on the hardcourts of Washington and, though Cilic won 2-0, both sets went to a tie-break. However, whilst that match was close, their other 3 matches have all been even closer, and all 3 of those took place on grass.
They first met in the round of 64 at Wimbledon in 2009, when it was Querrey who won the first and fourth sets before succumbing in the final set. The two players again went to the final set in a best-of-3-sets clash at Queen’s in 2012, which was a pre-cursor to an absolute epic-clash when they met at Wimbledon in the same season. That round of 32 clash saw Cilic take a 2-0 lead before Querrey battled back with two tie-break wins. However, for the third time in a row, Cilic took the deciding set, be it by a score of 17-15.
As all 3 clashes on grass have gone to the deciding set, it’s therefore a bit of a surprise to see a 3-0 win for Cilic as the favourite in the set-betting market at 7/4. It’s then 37/13 for Cilic to win 3-1, but it’s the 11/2 for Cilic to win 3-2 that makes plenty of appeal.
Cilic 3-2 @ 17/2 with Bet365
Roger Federer vs Tomas Berdych
Best Odds: Federer 2/13, Berdych 61/10
Tomas Berdych may have been lucky to get past an injured Novak Djokovic in the quarters, but he has a decent Wimbledon record overall, including a 3-1 victory over Federer in the 2010 Quarter-Finals, which is 1 of 6 victories in their 24 previous meetings. However, Federer has won their other two meetings on grass, and has now won their last 7 matches, with Berdych winning just 2 of the last 18 sets. Federer is also yet to drop a set so far in the championships, and has been ruthless in the three tie-breaks he has had to play so far, winning them to 0, 3 and 4. Berdych has been finding his form after an average season so far, but has still dropped sets to Chardy, Harrison and Thiem on route to the semi-finals, and he may just find an inform Federer too hot to handle.