Who Will Win The 2019 UK General Election?
Published on 04/12/19
On Thursday 12th December, the UK will head to the polls yet again to decide which party they want to govern the country in what looks to be a fairly one-issue election: Brexit. With the Tories backing their exit deal, the Lib Dems campaigning to revoke Article 50 and Labour undecided on which side of the fence to fall it’s not your standard election.
But before you analyse the election further, we have a question for you:
Who Do YOU Think Will Win?
Over the years, Betting Gods members have correctly predicted some of the biggest political upsets across the globe. Yes, we predicted Brexit. Yes, we predicted Trump. No, there’s no science behind it. But let’s see if we can correctly predict the outcome of the 2019 UK General Election…
So who do you think will win?
UK General Election 2019 Analysis
Thursday 12th December 2019
Most elections see the Tories dominating the South, Labour sweeping up their reliable seats in the North and the Lib Dems picking up the odd seat here and there.
But this election won’t work like that.
Labour-Leave voters feel forgotten or marginalised by the Labour party and it’s not hard to see why as they’re treated like fools. And it’s why the Tories are targeting seats that were once staunch Labour strongholds.
Workington, Crewe and Nantwich and Bolsover are all Labour-held, leaving voting constituencies with small majorities and it’s these seats that the Tories need to swing in order to win the election convincingly.
And that’s why when looking for value, we’ve focussed on Labour and just how bad it might get for them. The Tories look to have secured it with odds of 1.05 on them winning the most seats.
Labour currently has 243 seats and we don’t see them holding onto all 243 of these. In fact, some pollsters predict them losing up to 30 seats which is why we’ve looked at the total seat market for them.
There are, of course, other parties to consider.
The Brexit Party were looking on course to take a huge % of votes before announcing they wouldn’t be standing against current Tory MPs which has seen their vote share slide in the polls. We don’t see them picking up a single seat but there isn’t much value in backing this.
The Lib Dems currently have 21 seats in Parliament and we don’t see this shifting an awful lot so have found a little value in this market too.