Welsh National 10-Year-Trends
The Coral Welsh Grand National (27th Dec) takes place at Chepstow over 3-miles and 5-fulongs and, as one of the toughest races of the entire season, it throws-up some interesting trends.
The last 10 winners have been aged 6/7/7/8/8/8/8/8/7and 11. More interestingly, although the run of nine winners being aged 6 to 8 may have been broken last season, that age bracket was only represented by 4 horses, none of which managed to complete the course in what were biblically attritional conditions.
The age of the placed horses (2nd, 3rd and 4th) were as follows 2015 9/9/9, 2014 7/11/9, 2013, 8/12/8, 2012 9/11/11, 2011 9/9/8, 2010 9/8/11, 2009 7/6/9, 2008 9/8/6, 2007 7/8/8, 2006 6/9/8.
Weights carried by the winners in the last 10-years have varied between 10-1 and 11-6, but 7 of the 10 winners have carried just 10-8 or less, suggesting that lightweights are much more likely to win. The placed horses also add weight to the light-weight argument, as 20 of the 30 horses to finish second, third or fourth in the last decade also carried less than 11-0. The 3 horses that carried 11-0, 11-3 and 11-6 to victory were all very classy, with Synchronised even going on to win a Cheltenham Gold Cup.
The last 10 winners were rated 132, 131, 137, 128, 131, 150, 142, 152, 135 and 147, suggesting that current favourite Native River would have to put-up a serious performance if he is to win off a mark of 155. However, two horses have placed-off higher marks in the last decade, with Tidal Bay finishing third off 163, and 2006 winner Halcon Generladais placing twice off 156 and 164 after winning the race off a mark of 147.
Trainers Who Target The Race
The Lee family have been the most successful stable in recent seasons, with two victories for Richard Lee, whilst his daughter Kerry won the race in her first season after taking over her father’s license last season. Other winning trainers include Venetia Williams, Michael Scudamore, Jonjo O’Neill, Phillip Hobbs, Jim Dreaper, and Alan King. Venetia Williams has also bagged three places, whilst local trainer Evan Williams has also had three placed horses in the last five years, whilst Paul Nicholls has had five placed horses in the last eight years.
No jockey has ridden two winners in the last decade, though Paul Moloney has ridden one winner and two placed horses.
The last 10 winners have gone off at, 9/1, 9/1, 20/1, 10/1, 10/1, 5/1, 20/1, 16/1, 13/2 and 7/1, so plenty of horses near the front of the market do collect. However, placed horses at 25/1, 33/1 and 50/1 are not uncommon if you fancy an outsider.