If you want to back the winner of the 2017 US Masters, then the best way to narrow down your short-list of probable winners could be to take a look at the statistics produced by the winners of the last 10 renewals
No winner in the last decade has been aged over 39 so, no matter how much you love backing some of the players who are still brilliant in their 40’s, it generally pays to ditch the oldies. Meanwhile, six winners have been in their 30s, whilst four have been in their 20s; including the last two winners Jordan Spieth and Danny Willett.
Five of the last 10 winners have been American, but that also means that half of the last 10 renewals were won by non-Americans. These five were made-up of two South Africans, one Australian, one Argentinean and one Englishman.
Angel Cabrera and Zach Johnson were the only two players ranked outside the world’s top-30 in the last 10-years, with Danny Willett ranked 12th, Jordan Spieth ranked 4th, Bubba Watson ranked 12th in 2014 and 18th in 2012, Adam Scott ranked 7th, Charl Schwartzel ranked 29th, Phil Mickleson ranked 3rd, and Trevor Immleman ranked 29th. No World-Number-One has won in the last 10-years.
Whilst the pressure of winning on debut has proved too much for anyone in recent years, the last two winners Spieth and Willett have needed just one previous look at Augusta before winning their first green jacket, as did 2011 Champion Schwartzel, whilst 2007 Champion Zach Johnson had played here just twice before. Meanwhile, Bubba Watson needed just 3 previous looks before winning the first of his Masters Titles, and Trevor Immleman just 5. However, some players just take time to grow into their “potential” which was very much the case for the 2103 winner Adam Scott.
The history of the US Masters is littered with multiple-winners, but trends have changed in the last decade with 8 of the 10 winners winning it for the first time. The exceptions were Bubba Watson who has won 2 of the last 5, whilst Phil Mickleson was winning his fourth title. It’s also interesting that all 10 winners claimed their first major in the US Masters, whilst only the great Tiger Woods, Jack Nicklaus and Nick Faldo have ever won back-to-back Masters Titles.
US Masters Summary
If the 10-year-trends are to be believed, then the winner has an 80% chance of being in the world’s top-30, and a 60% chance of being in the world’s top-20, whilst he will have played in at least 1 previous US Masters. There’s also an 80% chance he’ll be winning his first Masters, whilst the stats say there is a fair chance this will be his first major title.
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