Upavon Fillies’ Stakes Trends & Analysis [inc FREE Tip]
Upavon Fillies’ Stakes Trends & Analysis [inc FREE Tip]

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Upavon Fillies’ Stakes Trends & Analysis [inc FREE Tip]

Posted August 14, 2019 | By Tim @ Betting Gods

The Listed Upavon Fillies Stakes’ (Wednesday 14 August, 3.50pm) is limited to fillies and mares aged three and older and is run over 1 mile 1 furlong and 201 yards. It was first run in 1988 and the 2016 and 2018 editions were both won by Chain Of Daisies.

Check out our 10-year-trends, runner-by-runner guide, and our free tip for the Upavon Fillies’ Stakes 2019.

Upavon Fillies’ Stakes 10-Year-Trends

The last 10 editions of the Upavon Fillies’ Stakes have been won by five 3-year-olds, two 4-year-olds, two 5-year-olds, and one 6-year-old. Five of those fillies were drawn in either stalls one, two, or three, whilst the others were drawn between stall-six and stall-11.

Only two fillies had won their previous race, with three others finishing second or third. However, four winners had finished no better than eighth on their previous start.

Winners last raced between 11 and 57 days before their success. Eight winners were returned at no bigger than 13/2 but there have been 20/1 and 33/1 winners in the last decade. Trainer Henry Candy has won three of the last five renewals of the Upavon Fillies’ Stakes, whilst John Gosden is the only other trainer with a runner this year that has won the race in the last 10 years.

Upavon Fillies’ Stakes Runner-By-Runner Guide

Magnolia Springs

94-rated 4-year-old that has been 20/1 or bigger in her four runs this season. She drops slightly in class here but still has plenty to prove having won just once. However, she’s still the fifth highest-rated filly in the field and the fitting of first-time cheek-pieces could have a positive effect after she was slowly away last time, providing she’s quick enough to take advantage of her draw in stall-3.

Queen Of Time

The highest-rated of Henry Candy’s two fillies on a mark of 97 and she advertised her claims by winning over course and distance last time when conceding lots of weight to inferior rivals. She could prove popular considering her trainer’s brilliant recent record in the race, but she’s been beaten in all 11 Listed races she’s run in so far in her career.

Skill Set

The second Henry Candy-trained runner but this 4-year-old is rated 15lb inferior to her stablemate. Having not raced at two, she won her second start in a class 4 novice, but has been beaten 13 and 31 lengths in two Listed races this season. She has the potential to improve after just four runs but it’s asking a lot of her to bridge the gap on this season’s evidence.

Time Change

Won a course and distance handicap off a mark of 80 last season but was down to a mark of 78 when second to Queen Of Time in another handicap over course and distance in July. She won another handicap off a mark of 80 last time but is 16lb worse off with Queen Of Time on their run over C&D.

Fanny Logan

John Gosden-trained 3-year-old that ran well when third in the Cheshire Oaks but she disappointed in a Group 2 at Royal Ascot behind a well-backed stablemate. She then beat five higher-rated rivals at York, suggesting she’s worth her new mark of 106. She’ll be tough to beat if running up to that mark, with 3-year-olds having won 50% of the last 10 renewals of the Upavon Fillies’ Stakes.

Gallic

Has been a model of consistency this year in four handicaps, not finishing worse than fourth. But those runs came off marks ranging from 83 to 85 and that leaves her with up to 21lb to find with her rivals.

Lavender’s Blue

Unraced as a 2-year-old but created a big impression in her first two runs as a 3-year-old. She won easily over a mile on her racecourse debut and then split the useful pair of Queen Power and Star Catcher. She’s possibly flattered by that form, as the third definitely improved to win the Irish Oaks over further, but she was thought good enough to run in the Epsom Oaks when she didn’t stay 12-furlongs. She drops back to 10-furlongs and must have a great chance with jockey Jim Crowley booked.

Sand Share

Interesting filly that has been tried in group and listed races on her last four starts, running best when third in a listed race in France last time. That form entitles her to respect but she’s only the third highest-rated filly in the field.

Sh Boom

Was sixth behind Lavendar’s Blue at Newbury earlier in the season at 33/1 and was 100/1 when only beating that rival home in the Epsom Oaks. Her overall profile suggests she doesn’t have the potential of that re-opposing filly and she’s unlikely to be good enough to take advantage of her draw in stall-one.

Sweet Promise

After just two runs, she’s the only filly in the line-up that hasn’t got an official rating so far. But, despite having the most potential for improvement, the horse that beat her last time had only looked average in two defeats before that win.

Upavon Fillies’ Stakes Verdict 2019

Queen Of Time looks the best of the 4-year-old fillies but, despite hailing from the yard of race specialist trainer Henry Candy, it’s hard to be enthusiastic about her chances after 11 defeats in Listed Races.

The 3-year-olds look a much better bunch, but Gallic, Sh Boom, and Sweet promise have to take a significant step forward to figure, and Sand Share, Fanny Logan, and Lavendar’s Blue look the three to concentrate on. Sand Share shouldn’t be far away but she’s the most exposed of the trio, and she has 8lb to find with Fanny Logan who ran a great race to win at York last time.

But Fanny Logan was well-beaten by Star Catcher at Royal Ascot, and Lavendar’s Blue finished in front of that filly earlier in the season and has the potential to improve past her at 10-furlongs.

Free Tip For The 2019 Upavon Fillies' Stakes
Lavender’s Blue @ 4.33 PaddyPower, Marathonbet
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