What a weird couple of years in global politics.
First, the UK unexpectedly votes to leave the EU. Then, the US votes in Trump. With the UK not looking to be outdone, the government finds itself to be acting in contempt of parliament, the first time this has even happened in British politics!
But with growing uncertainty and underdogs winning, it makes for a great opportunity for punters to earn a bit of cash. So here’s what we’re backing on the political betting markets:
Brexit Deal Vote
Next week on December 11th, MPs will vote on whether to accept May’s deal. It’s looking highly unlikely that the deal will pass. There’s certainly no value in the markets to back this though. However, there is value in backing how many MPs will vote for the deal.
We know there are 650 MPs so let’s start by deducting the dead-certs to vote against the deal. We can easily assume that the SNP and the sole green MP will vote against the deal. They make up 36 MPs.
We also know Sinn Fein don’t take their seats and the speaker and his 3 deputies will not vote. That’s 11 MPs.
We can make the same assumption about the Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru who make up a further 15 MPs.
Next, we need to take a look at the DUP. Until recently, the DUP have been voting with the government thanks to a £1billion windfall they were paid after the disastrous snap election. However, the Irish border backstop has destroyed this relationship and will see the DUP voting against May’s deal. That’s a further 10 MPs.
We now need to take a look at Labour. Jeremy Corbyn has told his party to vote against the deal (even if he hasn’t actually read it himself). We think most of the party will toe-the-line and vote against the deal. There are a few Brexiteers who will vote with the deal in fear that this is the only way any form of Brexit will actually happen.
Caroline Flint, John Mann, Ian Austin and Kevin Barron are all potential MPs in the Labour party who could vote with the government. However that does leave 251 MPs voting against it.
Finally, we have to look at the Conservatives themselves. This is where the majority of uncertainty lies. Based on public statements we can assume 93 will vote against and 176 for the deal. That does leave a whopping 45 MPs undeclared. Based on the split in the Tory party, we’ll assume 29 vote with the party and 16 against.
Based on those numbers, we’d expect to see 218 voting with the government.
Brexit Deal Vote Tip: 210 to 219 to Vote for the Deal @ 5.00 with Betfair and PaddyPower
The odds are now shortening on a second referendum to take place, and for good reason.
If May’s deal doesn’t pass on the 11th, MPs now have the opportunity to decide what happens next thanks to a motion put forward by Dominic Grieve. Without this say, we’d have said the chances of a second referendum would be close to zero. But with more and more MPs making their ‘pro people’s vote’ voice heard we think it’s highly likely that a second referendum will be taking place.
Second Referendum Vote Tip: Yes @ 2.25 with Ladbrokes, Coral and Betfred
Next UK General Election
If May’s deal fails then there’s a small chance we’ll find ourselves taking place in yet another election. The polls haven’t changed an awful lot since the last snap election with them moving up and down by just a few points.
It just goes to show that however bad May appears to be doing, people simply won’t shift towards Corbyn. He’s hit his peak.
It’s why if there were to be another election we can actually see the Tories squeezing out a small majority. The campaign they ran during the last snap election was horrendous. They ran on the wrong platform and pushed the wrong message. If (and a big one at that) they can learn from their mistakes, we can see them regaining a couple of those lost seats.
Next UK General Election Tip: Conservatives to Win a Majority @ 3.25 with Ladbrokes, Betfair, PaddyPower and Coral
Next Prime Minister
Finally, we need to look at the actual role of Prime Minister. We’ll assume it’s a Tory. Most people will put their money behind Gove or Boris but will the majority of the Tory party members really support a backstabber or a buffoon?
The Tory party, unlike Labour, aren’t seen to make rash or out-of-the-box decisions. Instead, we can see them sticking with someone more erudite and considered… More conservative. Dominic Raab wouldn’t have been a bad choice a few months ago but a few recent PR disasters put him out of the frame.
Instead, we’re more inclined to put our money behind either Sajid Javid as a safe bet and Gavin Williamson as an underdog.
Next Prime Minster Tips:
Sajid Javid @ 11.00 Ladbrokes and Coral
Gavin Williamson @ 101.00 Ladbrokes or 67.00 Betfair, PaddyPower, Betfred and Coral
How Would you Vote for?
If there was a snap election tomorrow, who would you find yourself voting for? In the past, our polls have correctly predicted the winners of past UK elections, Trump winning the US election and Brexit. Let’s see if we can predict the next general election:
Who Would You Vote for in an Election Tomorrow?
Odds Correct at Time of Publication