Nassau Stakes Trends & Preview [Plus FREE Tip]
The Nassau Stakes (Thursday 1 August, 3.35pm) is the Group 1 highlight of the third day of the Qatar Goodwood Festival. It was established in 1840 and is run over 1 mile 1 furlong and 197 yards. It is open to fillies and mares aged three and older, and top-class winners of the race have included Ouija Board, Midday, and Winter.
Check out 10-year-trends, runner-by-runner guide, and free tip for the Nassau Stakes 2019.
Nassau Stakes 10-Year-Trends
Eight of the last 10 editions of the Nassau Stakes have produced single-figure fields. Three of the winners of those editions were drawn in either stall-one or stall-two, whilst the other five were drawn in either the widest or second-widest stalls.
3-year-olds have dominated over the last decade with seven wins, including providing the last four winners. The other three renewals were won by two 4-year-olds and one 5-year-old. Only two of the last 10 winners had won their previous race, but six has finished runner-up, and the other two were third and fourth. Winners had raced between 20 and 79 days previously.
Nine of the last 10 winners were returned at no bigger than 11/2, but the other was returned at 20/1. John Gosden has trained three winners in the last decade and Aidan O’Brien two, and both of O’Brien’s winners were ridden by Ryan Moore.
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Nassau Stakes Runner-By-Runner Guide 2019
Japanese-trained 5-year-old that has a competitive rating of 113 but has generally fallen short in Group 1 races of late. The last of those was at Royal Ascot, where she finished sixth in a tough race won by Crystal Ocean. Tough ask conceding weight to the 3-year-olds from a middle-draw.
Trainer Mark Johnston has a good record at the Qatar Goodwood Festival but it’s asking a lot for this 105-rated 4-year-old to win. She is a course winner but she’s not up to this class and is also probably better over a shorter trip.
Sir Michael Stoute has trained seven winners of the Nassau Stakes but the last of those was in 2004. This 4-year-old has run well both times at today’s trip, winning a handicap and finishing second in a Group 2. However, those efforts don’t suggest she should be beating this year’s 3-year-old in her first attempt at a Group 1.
A second 4-year-old runner for Sir Michael Stoute but this one is rated 5lb lower than stablemate Rawdaa. She also finished 4-lengths behind her at York earlier this season and, though she’s won twice since, the form of those wins don’t entitle her to turn that form around.
French raiders don’t have a great record in the Nassau Stakes but this daughter of Nathaniel has made rapid progress in four runs this season, having been unraced as a 2-year-old. It took her two attempts to break her maiden but she has now won her last three races including the Group 1 French Oaks last time. She could be open to more improvement than some of her rivals on just her fifth start and could be the each-way value.
Aidan O’Brien trained 3-year-old that has won the English and Irish 1,000 Guineas this season, just as her trainer’s last two winners of this race, Winter and Minding, both did. However, she was beaten by a French horse at Royal Ascot on her last start. She steps up in distance today, something which she is bred to enjoy, and she could be hard to beat.
She was the shortest-priced of Aidan O’Brien’s runners in the English 1,000 Guineas but finished worst of the three. She’s also flopped in the Irish 1,000 Guineas and at Royal Ascot. She seemed to enjoy stepping up to 10-furlongs last time but was still beaten by a lower-rated rival. She has been beaten by Hermosa each time they’ve met this season and there’s no obvious reason why she should turn the form around.
Needs to break the trend of recent Nassau Stakes winners, as she did not finish in the first three last time. However, she can be excused that defeat as she didn’t stay in the Oaks, after travelling like the winner for much of the race. She has an each-way chance and stall-two should allow her to get a good early position.
Beat Maqsad over a mile as a 2-year-old and was backed off the boards to win at Chester on her second start of the season. She could only finish seventh in the Oaks but has since won a Group 2 in France. The drop-in-trip shouldn’t be a problem and she’s got a turn-of-foot that could trouble the best of these if Frankie Dettori can get this Gosden-trained filly in a good racing position in the straight.
Nassau Stakes Verdict 2019
This looks a thrilling renewal of the Nassau Stakes and the 4-year-olds and 5-year-old could find it difficult to compete against a good-looking bunch of 3-year-olds. Rawdaa is expected to win the battle of the older horses but that might still not be good enough to fill an each-way place.
Maqsad and Meydaayih drop back in trip after competing in the Oaks at Epsom but, though both fillies could benefit from that tactic, the form of the Oaks hasn’t worked out particularly well so far with the second, third, and fourth all beaten at least once since.
Just Wonderful has already proven herself at this trip but she’s no longer regarded as highly at Ballydoyle as dual 1,000 Guineas winner Hermosa, who promises to be even better at 10-furlongs. However, she still has to prove her stamina, and it’s worrying that she was beaten by an unfancied French-raider at Royal Ascot.
That horse was trained by Francis-Henri Graffard and it could be ominous that he now sends over his French Oaks winning filly Channel to take on the best of the English fillies and mares.
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Channel (Each-Way) @ 8.00 Bet365, SkyBet, Ladbrokes
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