2019 July Cup Analysis [Plus Free Tip]
The Group 1 July Cup (Saturday 13 July) is run over 6-furlongs on the July Course at Newmarket Racecourse. The race was established in 1876 and has been won by many of the most popular sprinters from around the world. Notable winners include Green Desert, Oasis Dream, and Muhaarar.
Check out our 10-year-trends, runner-by-runner guide, and free tip for the July Cup 2019.
July Cup 10-Year-Trends
Four-year-olds have won half of the last 10 editions of the July Cup, with one five-year-old being successful. Three-year-olds have won four times including three of the last four runnings.
Nine winners had run between 14 and 25 days earlier. Only four had won their previous race but none had finished worse than sixth.
Seven winners were returned at odds between 7/4 and 9/2, with the other priced up at 7/1, 12/1, and 20/1.
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July Cup Runner-By-runner Guide
A 37-day absence since his last run is longer than most recent winners, but it’s all part of a master plan by his trainer Kevin Ryan who has had this race as the main target for his seven-year-old this season. Ryan knows Brando doesn’t like Ascot so, after proving he’s still in decent nick with a win at Hamilton, he has kept him fresh in a big to go one place better than when runner-up last year.
Five-year-old who run well in many top handicaps over the last 12 months and looked better than ever when winning the Wokingham at Royal Ascot when dropping to 6-furlongs for the first time. Needs to prove he’s as good on the July Course, but did win a poor race on the Rowley Mile Course at Newmarket in the early stages of his career.
Six-year-old who placed in two Group 1 sprints last season but has yet to win at the highest level. Easily beaten by Brando at Hamilton earlier in the season and there’s no reason why he should beat him, let alone several potential younger improvers.
Dream Of Dreams
Five-year-old who put up his best performance when runner-up in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Ascot last time, a course where he’s run well before. That’s not the case at Newmarket, where he’s been well-beaten on both courses on his last two visits. That course form has to be a worry, but he looks an improving sort.
Trained by Charlie Appleby, who trained Blue Point to win both Group 1 sprints at Royal Ascot. But this four-year-old isn’t in his league yet judged on his defeats behind Dream Of Dreams and Limato this season, and he’s 5lb worse off with Limato.
Won the 2016 July Cup and usually runs well at this track, especially when the ground is on the fast side. However, his best recent form has been at 7-furlongs and this seven-year-old could find one or two of the younger horses too quick at this trip.
Sprinter from Singapore that could only finish eighth in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes. His trainer thinks we’ll see an improved performance this time but he has to find about seven-lengths with Dream Of Dreams.
Finished second or third in four group races this season behind some useful types, but it’s hard to see him troubling better horses here.
Speak In Colours
Never looked like winning the Diamond Jubilee Stakes but ran on well to finish fourth. He then won in Ireland and could again hit the frame without troubling the principals.
Did the blog a massive favour at Royal Ascot when backed from 11/1 into 8/1 to win the Commonwealth Cup in decent style. He also won the July Stakes here last season, and must have a great chance of improving the recent record of three-year-olds in the race.
All The King’s Men
92-rated runner for Aidan O’Brien who will surely be a pacemaker if allowed to take his chances.
Always considered a potential top-class sprinter by his powerful connections, and it was no surprise to see his stamina run out in the closing stages of the 2,000 Guineas. He was then sent-off a short-priced favourite to win the Commonwealth Cup but could only finish fourth. However, his best two runs have come on the Rowley Mile Course here at Newmarket and he could be the value-bet.
Won four of her five races as a two-year-old over 6-furlongs including on the Rowley Mile Course. Didn’t look to stay a mile in either the English or Irish 1,000 Guineas and was outpaced early over 5-furlongs last time before running on late. Should be suited by a return to 6-furlongs and has each-way chances.
Group 1 winner last season over this trip and ran well to be second in the Irish 1,000 Guineas. Could be suited by a return to sprinting but was beaten by Fairyland on the Rowley Mile Course over this trip last season.
Hasn’t achieved as much as some of the other Aidan O’Brien runners but she did finish close up behind both Advertise and Fairyland last season. She didn’t seem to stay 7-furlongs in the Jersey Stakes last time, so the drop back to 6-furlongs could be a good move.
July Cup 2019 Verdict
As ever, the 2019 July Cup provides us with an interesting clash of several generations of sprinters. Past champion Limato probably won’t be far away, whilst Dream Of Dreams and Cape Byron are improving types who could go well if liking the July Course as much as they like Ascot. However, one older horse that definitely prefers Newmarket to Ascot is Brando, and he could give the three-year-old most to think about.
Advertise looks sure to go close but, at around three-times the price of the favourite, Ten Sovereigns is given a chance to prove he wasn’t at his best at Royal Ascot, having beaten Advertise at Newmarket last season.
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Ten Sovereigns @ 9/1 10.00 Ladbrokes or 9.00 Bet365, WIlliamHill
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