The Derby: Ante-Post Horse Racing Predictions
The Derby, run at Epsom over 12-furlongs, is Britain’s richest and most prestigious horse race, though the prize money on offer pales into insignificance when compared to the millions that the winner will command in stud fees.
This year’s race takes place on Saturday 6th June.
Since the start of this millenium Aidan O’Brien (5) and Sir Michael Stoute (3) have won more than half of the 14 renewals between them, with John Oxx (2), Michael Bell, Marcus Tregoning, Peter Chapple-Hyam, Jim Bolger and Andre Fabre training the other winners.
However, O’Brien has had a stranglehold on it for the last 3 years, and will no doubt turn up at Epsom mob-handed in a bid to make it a fourth straight success.
Jockeys Joseph O’Brien, Ryan Moore and Kieren Fallon have all won it twice in the last 11 years.
The traditional Derby trials have all been run and, though Golden Horn has been installed as favourite after his win in York’s Dante Stakes, this year’s contest has an open feel about it. With that in mind, it’s time to take a look at some of the likely protagonists to see if we can uncover a bit of ante-post value.
Golden Horn 2/1
John Gosden’s impressive Dante winner will have to be supplemented but connection surely will. That was over 10-furlongs though and he’s bred to excel at around that trip. It was also interesting that Frankie Dettori had the choice between him and Jack Hobbs in the Dante and chose Jack Hobbs. Every chance, but 2/1 doesn’t smack of value.
Dermot Weld’s runner was an impressive winner of both of his juvenile starts, but they were over 7 and 8 furlongs, and he’s not bred to excel over 12-furlongs. Could be anything, but owes much of his place in the market to poor runs by others.
Elm Park 8/1
Connection of last year’s Racing Post Trophy winner will be praying for soft ground come the big day, but he should relish the 12 furlong trip and ran a reasonable if one-paced reappearance in the Dante Stakes.
Jack Hobbs 8/1
Sent off favourite for the Dante but came off second best to his stablemate Golden Horn. No obvious reason why he’ll turn that form around.
Hans Holbein 14/1
Well-backed before making all in the Chester Vase, which proved his stamina for 12-furlongs. May be more of a St Leger horse but his proven stamina could easily get him a place at least. Ruler of the World also won the Derby for Aiden O’Brien after winning the Chetster Vase.
Success Days 14/1 (needs to be supplemented)
His small connections will be doing a rain dance, and he’ll probably need soft going to be supplemented. Has been very impressive so far this year and would be of interest given the right conditions.
Giovanni Canaletto 16/1
The twice raced son of Gallileo has been hyped up as one of Aidan O’Briens’s better chances, but hasn’t reappeared so far this season. Bred to be a Derby winner, and it will be interesting to see if any money comes for him.
This probably isn’t going to be the hardest Derby to win, and it will be interesting to see whether Ryan Moore rides the stamina-proven Hans Holbein or the beautifully bred Giovanni Canaletto.
If he rides the latter, his price will surely crash, and he’s a speculative value selection.
1 point win Giovanni Canaletto @ 16/1 (Betway)
Do you have any top racing tips of your own for The Derby? Let us know….