The BettingGods.com Spring Festival Preview
Today we have the BettingGods.com Spring Festival at Nottingham Racecourse and Tim of Big Race Bookie Busters and Festival Flutters is sharing his predictions.
14:00 · Bettinggods.com Quentin Franks Racing Ebf Novice Stakes – 6 Furlongs
There has been just one previous running of this race, and the 1/16 favourite won from stall-2 in a field of 5 runners, whilst the winning jockey and trainer are both without a runner this year.
Expensive purchase who missed the break when fifth on debut after being sent-off at 7/2. Improvement likely, but trainer is 0/14 here in the last year and has had just 1 winner from his last 20 runners.
Made an inauspicious debut at Nottingham when finishing seventh of eight, but stable going quite well with 3 winners from their last 20 runners. However, trainer 0 from 10 here in the last 12 months.
Fetched 72,000 Guineas as a yearling, and his sire Camacho produces plenty of speedy types. Trainer 2 winners from last 20 runners, and the booking of Jim Crowley catches the eye as he’s 1 from 2 for the trainer, and has ridden 14 winners from 50 rides here in the last 3 seasons.
Fetched 90,000 Guineas as a yearling and, though bred to improve over further, the soft conditions may bring his stamina into play. Trainer just 1 winner from last 20, and 0 from 4 here in the last year, but the booking of Oisin Murphy suggests he’s fancied to go well as he has ridden 4 winners from his last 12 starts for the stable.
Trainer Richard Fahey is Nottingham’s Top Trainer over the last 3 seasons with 24 winners from 225 runners, and he had 5 winners from 20 runners over the weekend. This one cost slightly less as a yearling than he did as a foal though, so he may be worth taking on.
Stable 2 winners from last 20 runners, and 2 from 18 here in the last 12 months, However, this one was a cheap purchase, and the trainer will do well to beat horses with much bigger price-tags.
Made the best debut of those to have raced already, but will probably have to improve on that form if any of the newcomers lives up to their price-tags.
A trappy starter to say the least, and only time will tell if the benefit of already having a race will win the day for either Zain Flash, Green Power or Global Exceed, especially as they’re up against a newcomer from the powerful Richard Fahey yard. However, in the hope of finding some value, the jockey bookings of Jim Crowley and Oisin Murphy for Macho Guest and Master Grey means I’ll be splitting my stake on those two.
Macho Guest – 1 Point Win @ 7/1
Master Grey – 1 Point Win @ 13/2
2.30 Bettinggods.com Master Racing Tipster Handicap – 6 Furlongs
Trends (2 previous renewals)
Winners have been drawn 3 and 6
Winners have been rated 64 and 71
Winners carried 8-11 and 9-3
Winners were returned at 8/1 and 25/1
Mick Appleby trained the 2016 winner
Won off a mark of 67 three runs ago, and beaten only a neck and a head off 73 and 74 since, but up another 2lb. That not as worrying as a return to turf though, as best form on the all-weather so far.
Drops in class here after a decent second last time out, and stable in decent form with 3 winners from last 20 runners, and several more placed horses. More exposed than many, but likely to run his race.
Trainer very adept at getting average horses reasonably handicapped, and 3 from 9 here last year. However, this one hasn’t caught the eye on four starts so far.
Widest-draw to overcome, but another who drops in class. More significantly, best two runs have come on the softest surfaces he has encountered.
Type to pick up a handicap at some point, and class-5 looks about his level. Stable 2 from 19 here last year, and can’t be excluded with confidence.
Winner off an 8lb lower mark at Southwell, and soft ground may benefit returned to turf. Stable form a major worry though.
Winner of a class-6 handicap off a mark of 55, but new mark and higher-grade have looked beyond him on recent starts.
Just 1lb higher in the ratings than his trainer’s previous winner of this race, and steps down in class for his handicap debut. One of the more likely winners for stable who have had 5 winners from their last 20 runners, and who have shown a level-stakes profit here over the last 3 seasons. Oisin Murphy also an interesting jockey booking.
Finished second when favourite for a class-6 handicap on final start last season, but could find some improvement having been gelded since.
First run for new trainer who has had just 3 weeks to work the oracle, which is a tough ask on all known form.
Stable tried him at a mile on his seasonal debut, but of more interest back down to 6-furlongs on soft ground, conditions his sire Dream Ahead revelled in. Trainer also in excellent form with 5 winners from last 11 runners, and is 2 from 14 here in the last 12 months.
4lb higher than for last win, and probably fluffed easier chances since. Stable also struggling for winners currently.
The likes of Cappanaty Con and Father McKenzie have already shown their hands, however they look vulnerable if one of the less-exposed types has been crying out for a soft surface. Likely candidates to fill that role include Glacier Point and Fantasy keeper, but I’ll chance Vintage Dream at a big-price for a small stable going great guns at the moment.
Vintage Dream – 0.5 Points Each-Way @ 20/1
3.00 Bettinggods.com Value Racing Tips Handicap – 2 Miles
Trends (8 Previous Renewals)
Winners have been aged 4 to 8
6 of the 8 winners were drawn 5 or lower
The last seven winners were rated between 64 and 72
Winners SPs ranged from 11/10 to 15/2
Michael Scudamore trained the 2015 winner
Not won since May 2015, but now 12lb lower. Drops in to class-5 for new trainer, for whom her first runner on the flat, but she has won with 1 of her two runners under National Hunt Rules. Goes on soft, and Jamie Spencer is an interesting jockey booking.
Just 1lb higher than last winning-mark, and ran well for new trainer when stepped-up to this trip on the all-weather last time. Not ruled out, but didn’t run on soft ground for previous trainer.
On a winning mark judged on past exploits but, though this often highly-tried 9-year-old may appreciate a drop in class, he’s perhaps better on the all-weather nowadays.
Rock On Bollinkski
Just 1lb higher than last winning mark, and his jockey’s 7lb claim makes him very interesting on ground he has often relished in the past.
Coeur De Lion
Ran well here when last seen on the flat, and has won two hurdles on soft and heavy ground since. Should go well, with stable having 4 winners from their last 20 runners, though only 1 from 13 here last season.
Fair hurdler in his prime, but the 11-year-old has not won under either code since 2013.
Better known as a hurdler in recent seasons, but 2-miles in soft ground on the flat hold no fears for him. Jim Crowley an interesting jockey booking as he’s 3 for 15 for the stable, who are 4 from 15 here at Nottingham.
Won off a 4lb lower mark two starts ago, and could have further improvement to come. However, that win was on good-to-firm ground, and faces a much different task here.
Sail With Sultana
Looks out of her depth here, and will be something of a shock if she troubles the judge.
Coeur De Lion and Chelsea’s Boy look to have the most potential for improvement and victory for either of them will come as no surprise, whilst Jim Crowley is a very positive jockey booking for Dan Emmett. However, the 7lb that Ben Robinson claims aboard Rock On Bollinski for the first time could prove invaluable on ground that should be right up his street.
Rock On Bollinski – 1 Point Each-Way @ 11/1
Coeur de Lion – 2pt win @ 11/10
3.30 Bettinggods.com Sports Guru British Ebf Fillies’ Handicap – 10 furlongs
Trends (8 previous renewals)
5 of the last 8 winners were draw in stalls 2, 3 or 4
Winners carried between 9-2 and 9-7
Winners were rated between 72 and 80
SPs ranged from 8/15 to 5/1
Won a maiden over 7-furlongs as a two-year-old, but hasn’t shown much over 10-furlongs in two runs this season.
Stayed on powerfully to win her only run so far on soft ground over a mile, but runner-up hasn’t done much to advertise the form since. Bred to better still stepped-up in trip though, but stable form off-putting.
Hard to know what she achieved in three maiden runs, the last two with Christophe Soumillon aboard, but unexposed as she steps up to a more suitable trip on her first run in a handicap.
Reportedly could have done with a stronger gallop over course and distance last time, but isn’t guaranteed to get it here unless connections opt to make the running.
All 3 of her runs have been on good to firm ground so far, including her win, and it’s anyone’s guess as to how much improvement the combination of soft ground and a step up in trip could bring about.
Trainer reaches for a first-time hood as this one makes her handicap debut, making her another potential improver.
Took her 6 attempts to get off the mark last season, and very average run last time. Plenty of soft ground performers in her pedigree, but not much that says she’s crying out for a step up in trip, though Jamie Spencer is booked for the first time.
Should like the ground being by Motivator out of a Selkirk mare, but she does need to find a bit of improvement.
This could be a good time to make the most of any hospitality, as this race looks an absolute minefield with most of the horses stepping-up in trip on soft ground for the first time. Therefore, Prize Diva is a token tip as her breeding suggests she could love the ground, and her trainer is in much better form than many of the other trainers.
Prize Diva – 1 Point Each-Way @ 7/1
4.00 Bettinggods.com Free Racing Tips British Ebf Maiden Stakes – 1 Mile 75 Yards
Trends (10 previous renewals)
There are no dominant trends for this race, with winners drawn across the track, and SPs ranging from 8/11 to 25/1. Recent renewals have been won by some powerful stables, but none of them are represented here.
Stable 2 from 10 here last year, and this unraced 34,000 Guineas yearling has plenty of useful relations.
Yet to trouble the judge in two runs last season, and hard to recommend even with the stable going well.
Stable struggling for winners recently, and this one may be more of a long-term project anyway.
Plenty of soft-ground performers in his pedigree, and any market move would be interesting.
Hard to equate his runner-up debut finish, as the winner was far too good for him, and the third-placed horse hadn’t done much previously. Has at least proved he’s willing.
Belied odds of 66/1 to finish second on debut, and the form of that race worked out pretty well. Returns a gelding, but stable also missing a bit of verve at the moment.
William Haggas has his team in the best form of any trainer this season, though 1 winner from 14 runners here last season suggests he doesn’t send any world-beaters here. Could win, and many will see her at the each-way bet in the race.
Three’s A Crowd
Second runner for Ed de Giles, and interesting that jockey Callum Shepherd is 5 from 20 for him. Hard to see him winning on the form of his debut run, but stable have a decent record here overall.
Both sides of his family like a bit of cut in the ground, but her useful full-brother was better at shorter trips.
Last at a big price on debut, but stable in decent form, and 3 from 16 here in the last 12 months.
If Sporting Times returns in decent form he should win. However, as that’s not guaranteed with the stable not in the best of form, I’m drawn to the soft-ground pedigree of Long Socks. It’s a stab in the dark, but a 12/1 stab against a short-priced favourite.
Long Socks – 0.5 Points Each-Way @ 12/1
4.30 Bettinggods.com Big Race Bookie Busters Classified Stakes – 1 Mile 75 yards
Trends (7 previous renewals)
This race has been won by 7 different trainers and 7 different jockeys, with horses being drawn anywhere from stall-2 to stall-9, and SPs ranging from 3/1 to 28/1.
Three-times a runner-up from 5 starts, including over course and distance. Yet to race on a soft surface though.
Ran here twice, and the better of those two runs cam on a sound surface, having previously disappointed on soft ground.
25/1 winner on debut, and saddle reportedly slipped when only 6/1 next time. Had 5lb claimer on for both of those runs, so theoretically worse off here on ground which may not suit.
Raced only on the all-weather so far, and needs this transfer to turf to spark some improvement if he’s to get competitive.
Already had four runs, and all his form suggests an 8-month break will have needed to bring about some improvement if he’s to take a hand in the finish.
Yet to encounter soft ground, but his pedigree offers some hope he’ll handle it. Has a bit to find on his three runs as a two-year-old, but the fitting of first-time blinkers and the booking of Oisin Murphy suggest this could be the day to take a chance that’s he’s improved from two to three.
Looks exposed after 9 runs, unless soft ground is the missing piece of the puzzle.
Inconsistent sort so far having finished mid-field on debut, first on his second start and last on his third start. Cheekpieces on for the first time, and could handle soft ground after winning on the all-weather surface at Newcastle.
Placed on first four starts over sprint distances, but regressive over 7-furlongs since, so may not appreciate the extra furlong here.
Time To Sea
Sent-off at big-prices on all three starts so far in maidens, but stable form of 3 winners from last 13 runners offers some hope.
This race looks perfect for a well-plotted horse to pull-off a gamble, but Mach One appeals most having had a profile that suggests he’ll make a decent three-year-old. The booking of Oisin Murphy and the fitting of blinkers also suggest a big run is expected.
Mach One – 1 Point Each-Way @ 5/1
5.00 Bettinggods.com Free Betting Tips Handicap – 5 Furlongs
Winners have been drawn 5, 8, 8, 11 and 11
Winners have been aged 4 to 7
Winners carried between 8-13 and 9-7
Winners were rated between 66 and 73
SPs have ranged from 3/1 to 14/1
Excitable sort who won a class 5 maiden on his third start, but hasn’t been able to cut it in class 4 handicaps since. Dropped a few pounds by handicapper, and dropped in class.
6lb higher than last winning mark, but is at least proven over course and distance on soft ground.
Can definitely win off todays mark, but new trainer will have to improve his previous turf form, as all his previous best form is on the all-weather.
Stable in tremendous form over the weekend, and has an obvious chance off a mark of 69 having won both course starts off marks off 67 and 69, one of which was on soft ground.
Never been the most consistent sort, but will relish conditions, and has an each-way chance.
Ran poorly on both previous visits here, and others preferred.
Has been rated higher in the past, but handicapper raised him 4lb for a class-6 success, and that looks his level nowadays.
Won off marks of 58 and 59, and has tended to struggle when upped in class.
On a tough looking card, there could be lots of punters hoping to get out of jail in the lucky last. Therefore, I’d recommend saving a decent part of your betting money for Rainbow Orse, who is on a winning mark at a course he’s 2 from 2 at, and his stable is in great form – making him the Betting Gods Nap of the day.
Rainbow Orse – 3 points Win @ 5/2