Saturday Big-Race Free Tip: Betfred.com Superior Mile
There have been just 11 renewals of the Group-3 Betfred.com Superior Mile (Haydock 2.00, Saturday), and they have been won by three 3-year-old, four 4-year-olds, one 5-year-old, and two 6-year-olds. The most successful trainer has been Roger Charlton who has won 3 of the last 5 renewals, though it’s worth noting that no horse has won the race twice, which Charlton’s representative Captain Cat tries do this year.
9 runners are set to go to post – so here’s our analysis and tip.
Whilst his thirds in this year’s English and Irish Guineas look like the standout pieces of form, he’s run some disappointing races elsewhere, and has never really looked like winning any of his starts this year. Hard to rule out, but he makes me want to look elsewhere for some value.
Balty Boys 5/1
Last year’s runner-up is actually 4lb worse of with last year’s winner Captain Cat and, arguably, saves his very best for big-field handicaps where he seems to love the fast pace. Trainer Brian Ellison has booked Silvestre De Sousa for the first time though.
Sovereign Debt 13/2
Has been unlucky on more than one occasion this year, but looked a proper racehorse when impressively winning a listed mile race at the Curragh two starts back. He’s since finished a credible third behind Home of the Brave and Gordon Lord Byron, when outspeeded over 7-furlongs, and a return to a mile looks the right move. Stable also in form this week.
Talented but frustrating listed winner who could take this on his best form, but looked right out of form on his last couple of starts. Luke Morris an interesting jockey booking as he’s won on him before.
Lets Go 10/1
Looked a horse going places quickly after winning his first two races, but both his pedigree and the formbook suggest he’d prefer faster ground.
Hors De Combat 10/1
Best form is on good-to-firm ground, which is a shame as his stable is red-hot at the moment – but he’s not ruled out.
Captain Cat 12/1
Doesn’t deserve to be more than twice the price of Balty Boys on last year’s form, but he hasn’t hit those height since. Take a leap of faith to back him to return to that form here.
Master Carpenter 14/1
Won York’s John Smith’s Cup, but his good recent form is all over 10-furlongs, and he looked jaded on his last run.
Fanciful Angel 16/1
Needs to find a few pounds with most of the principles but, as the only likely front-runner, could get his own way up front, and won his only start at a mile.
The race is unlikely to be run at an end-to-end gallop, and that might suit Sovereign Debt the most. He’s looked best at a mile recently, but also has the pace to win at shorter and could outpace a few of these at the business end.
Sovereign Debt each-way @ 13/2 (BetVictor) 1/5 odds 3 places