Can Treve Land Arc Hat-Trick?
After winning the last two renewals of the Arc de Triomphe, the brilliant mare Treve has been installed as the even-money favourite for the 2015 Ard De Triomphe (Sunday 4th October) – but the big question is whether she’s value to land the hat-trick.
Record books and statistics get rewritten all the time, but there are some compelling statistics to suggest that she’s no even-money shot this time around. The biggest one is that 14 of the last 20 renewals have been won by 3-year-olds, and only two of those by 5-year-olds. There’s also the fact that no horse has ever done the hat-trick before. Treve fans will instantly point out the fact that she returned from injury to beat last year’s crop of 3-year-olds. However Australia, the top-rated 3-year-old of last year, was absent, and the general consensus was that last year’s 3-year-olds weren’t that good – and certainly not as good as this year’s.
With that in mind, it’s time to take a look at this year’s 3-year-old to see who may offer the best value against the favourite.
New Bay 9/2
Trained by 7-time Arc winning trainer Andre Fabre (6 of which have been 3-year-olds), and hasn’t looked back since being stepped up in trip after finishing runner-up in the French Guineas. Absolutely hacked-up in a significant Arc Trial last time, and possesses a brilliant burst of finishing speed.
Golden Horn 5/1
Won the Derby, the Eclipse and the Irish Champion Stakes and, if he hadn’t got beaten at York by a much lower-rated rival, he would probably be the half-the-price he is. Plenty of good horses didn’t run to their optimum at York that week though so that can be forgiven, and could easily add another Group 1 to his CV if this isn’t one race too many.
Jack Hobbs 12/1
The Irish Derby winner had his warm-up on the all-weather at Kempton, and the right-handed configuration of that track was very much at the forefront of connection’s plans. Interesting that he’s hacked-up all three times he’s raced right-handed and looks to have been aimed specifically at this race, unlike stablemate Golden Horn.
Finished 2nd in the Irish 1,000 Guineas, the Coronation Stakes and the Irish Champion Stakes behind some very good horses this year, and would be very interesting on breeding stepped-up to 12-furlongs for the first time. She also came good at this time last year when winning the Marcel Boussac on Arc weekend.
I’ll have no problem saluting Treve if she can land the hat-trick but, but I’m of the opinion that this year’s best 3-year-olds are a decent bunch, and it wouldn’t surprise me if any of the four aforementioned challengers win. However, I’m going to nail my colours to the mast of Jack Hobbs, who looks to have been specifically saved for Europe’s biggest all-age flat-race by his very in-form trainer John Gosden.