The second round of Premier League matches look to have been priced-up strictly on the form of the first matches and, whilst the bookies may have that right, there does seem some good statistical reasons for taking on a couple of odds-on shots this week. We’ve value-tips for Man United vs Southampton (Friday Night), Stoke vs Manchester City, Spurs vs Palace, West Brom vs Everton, and Leicester vs Arsenal.
Manchester United vs Southampton (Friday 8pm)
Manchester United have made a more than satisfactory start under new manager Mourinho, and victories over Bournemouth and Leicester have already got the Old Trafford faithful thinking that this is going to be a great season. They’ll also be fancying their chances of a hat-trick of victories after Southampton failed to beat Watford at home, which is a worrying sign after losing their manager and some key players. However, this is a Southampton side who won their last 4 games last season, and have also come away with 7 points from their last 3 visits to Old Trafford. It’s a typical early-season past/present form conundrum – but it may just be worth laying Manchester United from a value-angle.
Lay Manchester United @ 1.48 (Betfair Exchange)
Stoke vs Man City (12.30pm Saturday)
Making Manchester City odds-on for a fixture they’ve won just once in the last 5 seasons looks a bit of an overreaction to City’s 5-0 pummelling of Bucharest, and they were nowhere near that good in beating Sunderland 2-1 in their opening match. They did win 4-1 here two seasons ago, but lost 2-0 last season, and drew the three seasons before those games. Therefore, laying City looks the value play.
Lay Manchester City @ 1.72 (Betfair Exchange)
Spurs vs Crystal Palace (3pm Saturday)
Crystal Palace have failed to score on their last 3 visits to Spurs, with two losses and a 0-0 draw, and have failed to hit the target in 4 of their last 9 games. Meanwhile, Spurs have scored in their last 5 games, and looked likely to score plenty of goals this season despite opening with a 1-1 draw at Everton. Palace lost their opening home game 1-0 to West Brom, and could well suffer their second defeat to nil in a row.
Spurs To Win To Nil @ 11/8 (Skybet, Paddy Power)
West Brom vs Everton (3pm Saturday)
West Brom will be ecstatic to have started the season with a win, but Everton’s draw with Spurs looks the better form. The Toffees also love this fixture, having won it for the last two years, and they’ve lost it just once in the last 6.
Everton @ 28/17 (888 Sport, Unibet)
Leicester vs Arsenal (Saturday 5.30pm)
It’s all gone horribly wrong so far for Leicester, who looked on a par with Manchester United for much of the Community Shield, and really should of made more of their early possession against a Hull side without a lot of their first-choice players. Meanwhile, Arsenal may not have been forward enough to beat Liverpool, but have won 3 of their last 4 against Leicester, and are especially good at playing counter-attacking teams.
Arsenal @ 6/4 (Betfred, Betvictor)