Haydock will hopefully beat a morning inspection on Saturday, as the Peter Marsh Handicap Chase and the Sky Bet Supreme Trial Rossington Main Novices’ Hurdle are two interesting races we’ve got tips for.
We’ve also got two tips from Ascot, where the Matchbook Holloway’s Handicap Hurdle and the Bet365 Handicap Chase Free form part of an exciting card that may influence several Cheltenham Festival markets.
Mister Fisher was quite impressive last time at Kempton, but it’s worth remembering he was getting between 5lbs and 8lbs from some, admittedly, useful rivals. The problem here is he must give 3lbs to another potentially useful rival in Bright Forecast.
Ben Pauling’s five-year-old really caught the eye on his hurdles debut at Newbury, where he was the subject of an on-course plunge from 50/1 to 20/1 before coming with a later thrust to win, despite looking green. Bright Forecast was much more professional on his next start at Leicester, and he looks a value-bet to turn over Mister Fisher.
Sky Bet Supreme Trial Rossington Main Novices’ Hurdle Free Tip:
Bright Forecast @ 3.75 BetVictor, Bet365
Novice form doesn’t always work out in handicaps, but Seddon deserves the chance to prove he’s better than a mark of 137. This will be his first run in a handicap, and he looks potentially well-handicapped on his form behind Angel Breath and Elixir De Nutz, both of whom are fancied to run well in top novice hurdle races at the Cheltenham Festival, and could easily be 150+ horses in the making.
I also like the fact connections are stepping him up in trip to 2½ miles for the first time on his handicap debut as, after looking outpaced over the last half-mile over two-miles at Ascot last time, the extra distance should bring about some more improvement.
Matchbook Holloway’s Handicap Hurdle Free Tip:
Seddon @ 5.50 BetVictor, Bet365, Smarkets
The last five renewals of Ascot’s Bet365 Handicap Chase over 2 miles and 5 furlongs have thrown up some interesting statistics, with the last five winners all being rated between 139 and 143 and carrying between 10-12 and 11-6. Only four of the 13 entries fulfil both criteria and, though you can make a case for Divine Spear, Oneforthevillage, and Mr Medic, the one to be on could be Happy Diva.
She travelled and jumped beautifully at Cheltenham last time before finding just the high-class Aso too good. She also probably didn’t like the hill at Cheltenham and a return to a course and distance where she’s one from one over could be perfect for her. I think she’ll be difficult to keep out of the frame and she looks a cracking each-way bet.
Bet365 Handicap Chase Free Tip:
Happy Diva (Each-Way) @ 11.00 Betfair SB, BetVictor, PaddyPower
(all paying 4 places)
Bristol De Mai won the 2017 renewal of the Peter Marsh Chase off a mark of 154 carrying 11-2, but there doesn’t look to be a horse in this year’s field that can go on to win two Betfair Chases like he did. So, with the other four winners in the last five years all carrying 10-6 or less, it could pay to favour horses near the bottom of the weights.
Ballydine could be worth chancing as he ran well at Haydock on his only previous visit over a trip short of his best, whilst he just got outstayed over a longer trip at Newbury last time. James Bowen is an interesting first-time jockey booking, whilst the application of a first-time tongue tie and cheekpieces suggest connections think the combination may bring about the desired improvement needed to win this £40,000+ first prize.
Peter Marsh Handicap Chase Free Tip:
Ballydine (Each-Way) @ 8.50 10Bet, SportPesa, PaddyPower (all paying 4 places)