The blog’s run of near misses ended with 28/1 winner Francesco Molinari winning last week’s Italian Open for a second time, though we also have to give it up for Golf Betting Expert who tipped up 110/1 winner Michael Thompson.
This week, the main action comes from the Fedex Cup Finale, and the top-30 players in the Fedex Cup Standings will battle it out for the Tour Championship, and the Fedex Cup first prize of $10 Million.
The tournament takes place on its usual home at the East Lake Golf Club, Atlanta, Georgia, which is a testing par-70 that measures 7,307 yards. The course underwent some remodelling prior to the 2012 event, and a change to Bermuda Grass greens means that only the last 4-years form should be taken at face value. Meanwhile, accurate driving, greens in regulation, and a decent week with the putter have been the key-skills here in recent years.
The last 6 winners of the Tour Championship have also claimed the Fedex Cup, and that means there’s a total of $13 Million reasons to be motivated this week. The last 4 winners were also in the top-5 heading into this event and, with that in mind, there seems no better place to start than with an assessment of the top-5 players in the rankings, which are Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, Adam Scott, Jason Day and Paul Casey.
Dustin Johnson has been the best player in the world this season, and he showed his game is A1 with victory last time out. Fedex Cup victory would be the icing on the cake, and he’s finished 10/5/5 on his last 3 appearances here, despite the course not being an ideal fit for his skillset, and he can’t be ruled-out. Meanwhile, nobody has been more consistent than Patrick Reed of late, however he’s shown nothing in two visits here having finished 19th and 27th.
Adam Scott was champion here in 2006, but has finished only 19/14/9 on his last 3 visits, though a hat-trick of fourth-placed finished in his last 3 events shows his game is near its best. That isn’t something you can say about Jason Day, and the Australian is another who doesn’t look a perfect fit for East Lake having finished 14/4/10 on his last 3 tries.
Casey is more interesting though, as he arrives here in great form having finished runner-up on his last 2 starts, as well as fourth and fifth here on his only two attempts, and he looks the value out of the top-5 at 18/1.
Two other players also catch the eye at the prices, and both Ryan Moore at 45/1, and Emilliano Grillo at 50/1, make this week’s staking-plan. Moore was 9th here in 2010 and 3rd in 2012, and has been in excellent form off late. Meanwhile, Grillo has the tee-to-green game for this layout, if a lack of previous course knowledge isn’t a massive negative.
Paul Casey 3 Points Each-Way @ 18/1 (Betvictor) ¼ odds 4 places
Ryan Moore 1 Point Each-Way @ 45/1 (Betfred) ¼ odds 4 places
Emilliano Grillo 1 Point Each-Way @ 50/1 (Betfred) ¼ odds 4 places