As Benjamin Franklin once said, “diligence is the mother of good luck”, and nothing could be closer to the truth when it comes to building a profitable betting bank balance.
Applying a well thought out budget and strategy to relentless research and knowledge building lies at the heart of all winning systems and luck is seen to play a very minimal role in the overall outcome of events, particularly horse racing.
Tom Nelson operates Tom Nelson Racing, a hugely successful tipster here at Betting Gods who provides 60-90 tips per month with a 43.35% strike rate to date. He feels luck plays a minimal part in horse racing, with all the evidence available if you’re willing to put the time into studying it.
“In my eyes, luck plays around a 5% part in the overall racing results, but 95% of the time it’s down to how good a tipster conducts his research. If he’s thorough then the winners will flow.”
“A horse doesn’t know its odds, so just concentrate on getting all the ticks in the right boxes and disregard the price. It’s down to good research into things such as speed figures, the ideal trip, the going, individual horse likes and dislikes etc.”
Tom did concede that there will always be occasions when things just don’t fall into place:
“There will be times when it doesn’t matter how much research you do, sometimes horses will just run badly. They aren’t machines at the end of the day, so that’s where the luck comes in.”
The depth of research that we’re talking about with expert tipsters really does run deep, but there are other variable employed into strategies which can help limit the risk factor in race betting, as Robin from Value Racing Tips explains:
“To start with, I don’t pick horses running five or six furlong flat races as any slow starters or blocked horses are instantly without much of a chance, no matter how good they are.”
“Race history is also very important – a lot of people may look at a race and see a horse as the stand out star just because it won by 10 lengths when easing down over the same trip and going that it’s racing on now. However, if you look a little closer, you notice that it’s been upped in class, the horses it beat last time out had poor previous form anyway, and all of a sudden it’s looking beatable.”
“Another important aspect for me is watching videos of the previous races as well as learning through experience the implications that breeding can have on horses which are stepping up in trip or attempting certain types of ground for the first time. It’s a very complex process which I could probably write a book about but I can assure current and potential members of Value Racing Tips that I work very hard to ensure I can produce the regular profits that you see.”
Understanding the different processes of expert tipsters gives us a valuable insight into the complexity with which decisions are made. They aren’t whimsical picks based on dodgy rumours, but well planned and executed research strategies based on years of experience.
That’s it for this week’s second and final part of the psychology of tipsters. You can read extensive reviews and profiles on all of our tipsters, including Tom Nelson Racing and Value Racing Tips, by clicking here. See you next week!