The Lockinge Stakes Preview

The Lockinge Stakes Preview

May 13, 2016

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Established in 1958, it was not until 1995 that the Lockinge Stakes (15:55 Sat 14th May at Newbury) earned group-1 status, and was opened to horses aged 4 or older.

Lockinge Stakes

The last 10 renewals have been won by seven 4-year-olds and three 5-year-olds, whilst the Hannon Stable have won 4 of the last 6 renewals. The only jockey to have won 2 renewals in that time is Frankie Dettori.

13 runners are set to go to post for the 2016 Lockinge Stakes.

Arod

Third in last year’s renewal, when ¾ length behind the re-opposing Toormore, but that was on faster ground, and softer conditions are unlikely to suit him.

Barchan

No chance of winning, and will be acting as a Pacemaker for Belardo. However, those tactics didn’t work last-time at Sandown.

Belardo

Connections will be praying that conditions don’t dry-up any further, and likely to be well-backed if conditions are soft. However, they may dry-up to good-soft or even good by race time.

Dutch Connection

Beaten a neck by Toormore on their seasonal debuts, with Belardo further back, but is 3lb worse off with the winner, and is another who has shown his best form on a fast surface.

Endless Drama

Not been seen since finishing a close-up second behind Gleneagles in last year’s Irish 2,000 Guineas, but had been beaten twice on softer ground before that run. Did finish in front of Belardo, who wasn’t in the best of form at the time. A bit of an unknown quantity.

Gabrial

Well-behind Toormore last time and, though he often runs with credit in big races, he’s shouldn’t be good enough to win this.

GM Hopkins

Stepped out of handicap company to win a listed race on his seasonal debut, but that didn’t suggest he’s up to winning this.

Johnny Barnes

Gosden and Dettori team-up here, but his fourth at Leicester last time didn’t suggest he can win a group-1, whilst his two tries at a mile have been disappointing.

Kodi Bear

Has the potential to improve again this year, but has been found wanting in group-1s so far, and finished behind Belardo and Dutch Connection in them last year.

Limato

Top-rated and, if he stays a mile, he’s potentially top-class. However, the trip, the ground, and his new jockey are all imponderables.

Mahsoob

Group-3 winner at 9-furlongs, and his stamina could be useful if this turns into a test. However, his best form is on good-to-firm, and his overall form leaves him with a bit to find.

Toormore

Has the least question marks about him, as he’s likely to handle the ground, and probably has the best form in the book having been second in last year’s renewal. His stable has also won 4 of the last 6, and last year’s winning jockey gets the leg-up.

Euro Charline

Interesting that Ryan Moore has been first and second on her in two rides, but all her best form is on good-to-firm.

Summary

With the ground likely to be good-to-soft or even good by race time, everything looks likely to fall right for Toormore, and his inform stable have won 4 of the last 6.

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