Royal Ascot 2019 Commonwealth Cup Analysis
The 2019 Commonwealth Cup (Friday 21 June, 3.40pm) is one of two Group 1 highlights on the fourth day of the Royal Ascot Meeting. The race is run over six furlongs and is open to three-year-olds. The race was only established in 2015 and the four previous winners have been Muhaarar, Quiet Reflection, Caravaggio, and Eqtidaar.
Check out our trends, runner-by-runner guide, and free tip for the Commonwealth Cup 2019.
Commonwealth Cup Trends
Three colts and one filly have won the Commonwealth Cup, with the winners being drawn in stalls 3, 5, 8, and 8 in fields of 22, 12, 10, and 18 horses. Only Caravaggio came into the race unbeaten, whilst Quiet Reflection had also won her previous race. Eqtidaar finished fourth on his previous start, whilst Muhaarar was only eighth when a non-stayer in the 2,000 Guineas.
The four winners all had one or two prep runs that season, with their last race coming between 20 and 40 days prior to their Commonwealth Cup victory. Aidan O’Brien and Charlie Hills are the two trainers with runners this year that have won the race before, whilst Ryan Moore, Dane O’Neill, and Jim Crowley are the only jockeys with rides that have already won the race.
Caravaggio is the shortest-priced winner at 5/6, whilst Quiet Reflection was also sent off as favourite at 7/4. The other two winners were returned at odds of 10/1 and 12/1.
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Commonwealth Cup Runner-By-Runner Guide 2019
A difficult horse to weigh up, as he won three-times over six-furlongs as a two-year-old, and split champion two-year-old Too Darn Hot and this year’s Derby winner Anthony Van Dyke over seven furlongs. He was then trained for this season’s 2,000 Guineas, but he made little impression in that race. However, he’s an interesting runner dropped back to six-furlongs, as he has a wealth of top-class sprinters in his pedigree including Showcasing, Oasis Dream, and Pivotal. Frankie Dettori has also won on him twice from three rides, whilst first-time blinkers could also sharpen him up for this sprinting assignment.
Won two of his three runs as a two-year-old over six-furlongs, but nothing went right for him on his seasonal debut. He was restless in the stalls, jumped at the start, pulled hard, and eventually didn’t seem to stay seven furlongs that day. Since then, he has redeemed his reputation by beating Calyx at Haydock over six furlongs, and that subsequently injured horse was favourite for this race at the time. He has also won on soft and good-to-soft ground, so he shouldn’t be inconvenienced whether it rains, or the ground dries up at Ascot.
Won two of his three starts as a two-year-old and then finished just half-a-length behind Ten Sovereigns in a Group 1 race at Newmarket. He also showed tenacity to win over seven furlongs on his prep run for this and, though he’s only won on good or faster ground, he has several soft-ground influences in his pedigree.
Beaten 11-lengths by Calyx on his racing debut, but he has improved on each run since to win a class 4, class 2, and a Listed Race. That form suggests he still has plenty to find with the market leaders, but Charlie Hills has trained some cracking sprinters in the last few years that have improved rapidly from race to race. However, the owner’s retained jockey Jim Crowley rides Jash.
He’s already been beaten by Advertise and Khaadem, which suggests he won’t be winning today unless the combination of a tongue tie and first-time cheek-pieces have a dramatic effect.
Won twice as a two-year-old, with the highlight being his Group 2 win at Glorious Goodwood. He had earlier finished fourth in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot and later finished four-lengths being Ten Sovereigns and Jash at Newmarket. That suggests he has a tough ask on seasonal debut unless he’s made giant strides since we last saw him.
Won his three races as a two-year-old, when the money was lumped on in wheelbarrows-full at the bookies each time. That was the case again when he was gambled from 6/1 to 9/4 to win the 2,000 Guineas, but he didn’t appear to stay the mile there. This son of No Say Never could be a top-class sprinter.
Forever In Dreams
One of two fillies in this year’s line-up, but even the form of her Listed win last time out suggests she has a mountain to climb to get competitive here.
Ran above her 33/1 expectations in a four-runner race last time, when she was beaten around four-lengths by Hello Youmzain. She was just touched off by Calyx that day, which suggests that Hello Youmzain may be flattered by that form rather than her being up to this standard.
Commonwealth Cup Summary 2019
Forever In Dreams, Royal Intervention, and Konchek would be surprise winners. Khaadem and Rumble Inthejungle have more scope to reach this level, but Jim Crowley has chosen not to ride Khaadem, whilst Rumble Inthejungle hasn’t had a prep race, unlike all previous Commonwealth Cup winners.
Hello Youmzain may have been flattered when beating Calyx last time, whilst Jash has already been beaten by Ten Sovereigns, but could still give the favourite something to think about. Ten Sovereigns is a worthy market leader to give Aidan O’Brien his second Commonwealth Cup winner and, if the rumours about how good he is are true, expect the boys from Coolmore Stud to lump on once more.
Despite that, Advertise could be worth an each-way bet against the favourite. A mark of 119 means he’s officially the second highest-rated horse in the race, just 1lb inferior to the favourite, but he’s around 10-times the price. He also has lots of top sprinters in his pedigree and first-time blinkers and Frankie Dettori in the saddle suggest this race has always been the target after his 2,000 Guineas flop.
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Advertise (Each Way) @ 12.00 BetVictor, WilliamHill, SkyBet[/su_service]
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