Punt On The Next President?

Punt On The Next President?

February 19, 2016

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Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’ll know that the US presidential candidacy is hotting up. But where is the smart money at? Who is most likely to win the Republican candidacy, the democrat candidacy and, importantly, who will most probably be in the Oval Office this time next year?

President US Election

The Republicans?

Dr Ben Carson – 50/1

Carson enjoyed some success early on in the campaign but has tailed off by failing to connect with voters and putting some off with his extreme views. It seems only a matter of time before the candidate will call it a day. There had been hopes that he might be able to connect with black voters, but his strict conservatism seems to have backfired. Unlikely.

Senator Ted Cruz – 5/1

Many in the UK won’t know a lot about Cruz but there’s just as a good a chance of him being the Republican Candidate come November as there is the more visible Donald Trump. Cruz is an experienced politician and, perhaps more importantly, has clicked with the all important evangelical crowd in America’s Mid-West and southern states, something Trump is struggling to do. Trump may remain the frontrunner, but don’t be surprised if a late surge sees Cruz take the candidacy.

Donald Trump – 3/1

Trump remains the frontrunner with his crowd pleasing rhetoric and his in your face style. Republican voters are tired after eight years of Democrat rule, and Trump’s brash style (no matter how empty it might seem to us) is going down a treat with voters. However, his Christian credentials are increasingly being questioned, and those odds may lengthen if he doesn’t do something about it soon.

Jeb Bush – 25/1

It seems odd to put an establishment politician as an outsider, but this campaign has not been kind on the brother of former Commander-in-Chief George W. He did extremely poorly in New Hampshire, and analysts believe it’s only a matter of time before the Texan drops out. That said, the pragmatist has had a slight surge of late, so don’t write him off just yet.

The Democrats

Hillary Clinton – 3/1

Clinton is part of the establishment which works both for and against her, depending on who you speak to. Many trust her pragmatic policies and her experience as Secretary of State, while others see her as a populist who says what voters want to hear. Although she’s facing a surprise challenge from Vermont senator Bernie Sanders (much like she did when she faced Obama eight years ago) it seems less likely she will lose out this time to the upstart from the northern state.

Bernie Sanders – 10/1

Although Bernie says all the right things and genuinely seems to mean them, his challenge looks like it will only go so far, as older voters choose safety with Hillary. His campaign has energised the young and may lead to a change in how voters behave in the future, but while he’s riding the crest of a wave, it doesn’t seem likely he will ultimately prevail.

Roque De La Fuente – 100/1

Who? Yup, we had the same question, and with reason. Although De La Fuente might garner some of the Hispanic vote, that particular democrat is still loyal to Clinton, and it’s only a matter of time before he bows out.

So who to back in the ultimate race?

If we take Clinton and Trump as the eventual winners, we would say Clinton would be the stronger bet at about 5/1, and not only because we don’t want to see Trump in control of that big red button.

Many feel that American voters will play it safe in the end, in which case it seems unlikely they will trust Trump, not just because of his rhetoric but also his political inexperience. Clinton won’t woo Republican voters by being potentially the first female president, but she may well gather votes from swing voters and while it’s will probably go to the wire, she seems the most likely winner in November

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