Premier League Relegation Preview
Published on 19/07/16
Interest in the 2016/17 Premier League season is heating-up but, whilst most of the betting activity will be focused on who will win the Premier League Title – the relegation battle is always a lively market.
Past statistics are always worth considering, and a look back at how the teams who have been promoted from the Championship the previous season have fared is a good place to start.
Only once since the 2004/5 season have all three promoted teams maintained their Premier League status at the end of the following season, with Queens Park Rangers, Norwich and Swansea all surviving the dreaded drop in 2010/11.
Meanwhile, in 2005/6, 2006/7, 2009/10 and 2015/15 two of the three promoted teams made an instant return to the Championship. However, in the 6 remaining seasons in this period, only one promoted team was instantly relegated.
The three promoted teams can also be divided into Champions, Runner-ups, and Play-off Winners, with 4 Champions, 3 Runners-Up, and 7 Play-off winners only surviving one season.
So let’s take a look at the main candidates for relegation.
Despite finishing the 2015/16 as Championship Winners, 4 points clear of their nearest rivals, Burnley are odds-on with all but one bookmaker to be relegated. The bad news for them is 3 of the last 5 champions have suffered that fate, whilst they also went straight back down at the end of the 2014/15 season having been promoted in 2013/14.
Hull are also a best-priced even-money to avoid the drop, but that looks a fair price considering that 7 of the last 12 teams to have been promoted via the play-offs have fallen at the first hurdle. They did survive one season after being promoted in 2013, but had finished runners-up during that season.
Last year’s Championship runners-up are statistically the most likely to survive according to the stats and, with just 3 of the last 12 runners-up getting relegated instantly, the 8/5 actually looks a bit on the skinny side.
13 may be unlucky for some, but no team placed thirteenth has suffered the drop for the last 3 seasons, so 5/2 may not be value.
No team placed fourteenth the previous season has suffered relegation the year after, so the 5/2 for West Brom may not be value either.
Sunderland have diced with death in the previous two seasons, and they’ll be hoping to do the same. However, teams who have finished 16th and 17th the previous season have taken the drop in one of the last two seasons, so 3/1 could be a good bet.
If you want to take a price about one, the best value may well be Swansea, and it’s not beyond possibility that the twelfth placed team can get relegated the season after, as Fulham did in 2014.
Premier League Relegation Summary
Burnley and Hull are the two teams most likely to go back down according to the statistics, and the third team to suffer the drop may well be between Sunderland and Swansea, with Swansea just fancied at the prices.