Most of the big action in the Premier League is taking place on Sunday this week, but there still seems to be plenty of decent value-bets in the matches of Stoke vs Leicester, Southampton vs Burnley, and West Ham vs Liverpool.
Stoke vs Leicester (Saturday 12.30)
Recent matches between the two teams suggest that this is going to be a tough game for Stoke, as the last 3 renewals have resulted in two draws and a Leicester win, whilst Leicester have also won the last two reverse fixtures. Leicester are also unbeaten in their last 3 away games having beaten Swansea and drawn with Huddersfield and Bournemouth, whilst Bournemouth left Stoke with 3-points after a 2-1 win last weekend. The percentage play is probably to lay Stoke, but the value-play looks to be the draw with the last 2 renewals ending that way.
Draw @ 23/10 Bet365, Betfair, BetVictor
Southampton vs Burnley (Saturday 3.00)
The last 4 matches between the two teams may have been won by the home team, but the gut-feeling is that Southampton aren’t quite as good as they have been in the last couple of seasons, whilst Burnley have made huge progress under Sean Dyche this season. Burnley were dreadful away from home last season but, despite a 3-0 loss to Manchester City in their last away game, they’ve won at both Everton and Chelsea, and drawn at both Liverpool and Tottenham, this season. Those performances have helped them earn the 16-points which sees them at seventh in the Premier League Table. That’s three places above Southampton, who have only won 2 of their 5 home games. Therefore, the play has to be to lay Southampton, or back the draw and a Burnley win.
Burnley Win @ 11/2 Bet365, Betfair, WilliamHill, Betway
Draw @ 14/5 Betfair
West Ham vs Liverpool (Saturday 5.30)
West Ham haven’t got a bad record against Liverpool in the last 3 seasons, though it is regressive. They won both matches three seasons ago, then drew both match two seasons ago. They also earned a 2-2 at Anfield last season, but then got thumped 4-0 at home later on. Five defeats in ten games this season also suggests that West Ham could be there for the taking by someone with Liverpool’s attacking line-up and, after four goals in both games last season, it could be something similar this year. The way West Ham and Liverpool have been playing this season also adds plenty of weight to that argument, as there have been at least four goals in five of West Ham’s ten matches, and at least four goals in five of Liverpool’s ten matches – suggesting odds-against quotes for more than 3.5 goals are more than fair. Decent odds about there being more than 4.5 goals also look worth taking, as three of West Ham’s ten matches and four of Liverpool’s ten matches have produced at least five goals.
More Than 3.5 Goals @ 7/4 Betfair
More Than 4.5 Goals @ 4/1 Betfair or BetVictor