Arsenal vs Manchester United may be the biggest match in this Saturday’s Premier League Fixtures but, with that match looking a tough call, I think we’ve uncovered some better-value bets in the matches between Leicester and Burnley, Watford and Tottenham, and Stoke and Swansea.
Leicester vs Burnley (Saturday 3.00)
The bookies look to have been overly impressed by Leicester’s mid-week win over Tottenham, and odds-on quotes for them to beat a Burnley side that sits 8-points above them in the Premier League Table look crazy to me. If this was the same Burnley as last season, a team which lost 3-0 in this fixture on their way to amassing just 5 points on their travels, then fair enough. However, this is a Burley side whose only away defeat this season came at the hands of Manchester City, with draws against Liverpool and Tottenham, and wins over Bournemouth, Southampton, Everton and Chelsea. Therefore, odds in excess of 4/1 for a Burnley win has to be a value-bet whether they win, lose or draw.
Burnley Win @ 4.65 with ComeOn
Watford vs Tottenham (Saturday 3.00)
A fixture dominated by Tottenham in recent times, and they’ve won the last 7 matches between the two teams, including 4-0 and 4-1 wins last season. However, after excelling in their Champions League campaign so far, they seem to have taken their foot of the gas at the moment, meaning Watford might fancy their chances which could lead to an exciting goal-fest. Watford do love to try and entertain and, despite only beating Arsenal 2-1, their matches against Liverpool, Manchester United, Manchester City and Chelsea have all produced 6 goals. Therefore, it could be worth taking progressively bigger odds of there being more than 3.5 goals, more than 4.5 goals and more than 5.5 goals.
More Than 3.5 Goals @ 2.60 with ComeOn
More Than 4.5 Goals @ 4.55 with ComeOn
More Than 5.5 Goals @ 8.50 with ComeOn
Stoke vs Swansea (Saturday 3.00)
Stoke vs Swansea may conjure images of a potentially drab low-scoring affair, but the statistics strongly suggest that quotes of odds-against for there to be more than 2.5 goals could be well worth snapping up. That because the last three renewals of this fixture have ended up 3-1, 2-2 and 2-1, whilst Stoke’s last 6 home score-lines of 0-3, 2-2, 1-2, 2-1, 0-4 and 2-2 hopefully suggest the bookies have got this one wrong.
More than 2.5 Goals @ 2.15 with ComeOn