There was carnage in the Premier League on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, so well done if you managed to predict that Newcastle would beat Manchester City, Bournemouth would beat Chelsea, Leicester would take a point at Anfield, and Burnley would hold Manchester United to a draw at Old Trafford. It wasn’t exactly easy for injury-hit Tottenham either, as they had to score two goals in the last 10 minutes to come from a goal behind to beat Watford at Wembley.
Whether those results prove a blip on the landscape remains to be seen, but we’ve got analysis and free tips for this weekend’s Premier League matches for Tottenham vs Newcastle, Brighton vs Watford, Burnley vs Southampton, and Manchester City vs Arsenal.
Tottenham vs Newcastle (Saturday 12.30)
A last gasp win against Watford was much needed by a Tottenham side that has been dumped out of both the FA Cup and Carabao Cup, as well as being beaten by Manchester United in recent times. That run of poor form has coincided with a catalogue of unfortunate injuries and Spurs certainly could be worth taking on at odds-on against Newcastle, despite them winning their last three games against The Magpies.
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However, despite Newcastle’s win over Manchester City this week, I’m not convinced they’ve got what it takes to take points off two top-six teams in successive games. A better betting angle may be the over/under goals market, as two of the last three matches between the two sides have produced less than 2.5 goals, including last year’s 1-0 Spurs victory in the corresponding fixture. Add in the lack of Tottenham’s first-choice strikers and even-money or better for less than 2.5 goals looks a value-bet.
Tottenham vs Newcastle Free Tip:
Less Than 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Betfair SB, BetVictor, 888Sport, Unibet, Marathon
Brighton vs Watford (Saturday 3.00)
Another of this weekend’s match-ups that tends to produce low-scoring games is Brighton vs Watford, with the last three confrontations ending 2-0, 1-0, and 0-0. Add in the fact that Brighton’s last three home games have finished 0-0, 0-1, and 1-1 and it’s easy to why the bookies are taking no chances by going around 8/11 for there being less than 2.5 goals. However, as you would have collected by betting on less than 1.5 goals in those three matches, as well as two of the last three matches between these two teams, it could be worth taking prices of around 2/1 about there being less than 1.5 goals.
Brighton vs Watford Free Tips:
Less Than 1.5 Goals @ 3.20 Marathon, SpreadEx
Burnley vs Southampton (Saturday 3.00)
This is rapidly turning into a Saturday in which I’ll be hoping there won’t be many goals to watch on Match Of The Day. Burnley vs Southampton is another traditional low-scoring match up, with the last three head-to-heads finishing 0-0, 1-1, and 1-0. Admittedly, there have been nine goals in Burnley’s last two games but, now back playing against a mainly defence-minded Southampton outfit that was held to a 1-1 draw by Crystal Palace in mid-week, I’m hopeful this could be another game worth betting on there being less than 2.5 goals.
Burnley vs Southampton Free Tip:
Less Than 2.5 Goals @ 1.81 Marathon, 188Bet, Matchbook, Smarkets
Manchester City vs Arsenal (Sunday 4.30)
If there’s one game this weekend that should provide some goals it’s Manchester City vs Arsenal, though they may not come from an Arsenal side that has failed to breach the City defence on the last three occasions they’ve met.
City did let in two goals in their title-threatening defeat against Newcastle in mid-week but Pep Guardiola will surely have done everything in his powers to plug any defensive leaks, and it’s worth remembering that City had kept six consecutive clean sheets before that. That gives me hope that City can continue their current run against Arsenal and makes it four wins to nil in a row.
Manchester City vs Arsenal Free Tips:
Man City To Win To Nil @ 2.63 SkyBet, 188Bet