Premier League 2019-20 Relegation Analysis
Published on 18/07/19
The first priority of the teams promoted to the Premier League from the Championship at the end of the 2018/19 English Football Season will be to avoid relegation. Sheffield United and Norwich City are odds-on with many bookmakers to playing Championship football again in the 2020/21 season. Despite only being promoted through the play-offs, Aston Villa are only the fifth favourites to face the dreaded drop with many bookmakers, with Burnley and Brighton shorter in many lists.
Check our trends, analysis, and tips for Premier League relation 2019/20.
Where The Promoted Teams Finished The Following Season
Below are how the 30 teams promoted from the Championship in the last 10-years have fared in their first season back in the Premier League, with their finishing position in brackets. The teams are in the order they were promoted, first, second, and via the play-offs.
West Brom (11th)
West Ham (10th)
Crystal Palace (11th)
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Other Teams To Be Relegated
Below are the other teams that have been relegated in each of the last 10 Premier League seasons and their finishing position in the previous Premier League season.
West Ham (17th)
Aston Villa (17th)
West Brom (10th)
2019/20 Premier League Relegation Analysis
In all of the last 10 seasons, at least one of the teams promoted from the Championship the previous season has managed to survive relegation. Indeed, only in three of those seasons have two of the promoted teams been relegated after just one season. One of the three promoted sides have been relegated in five seasons, whilst all three promoted teams have survived twice in the last decade. That means only 11 of the last 30 promoted teams have been relegated after just one season, six of which had won the play-offs, two were the Championship winners, whilst three had finished second in the Championship the previous season.
Of the other 19 teams to be relegated, just two of them had finished in the top-half of the Premier League table the previous season, and they finished ninth and 10th. Three teams also finished 11th, 12th or 13th. That means that 14 of the last 30 relegated teams finished between 14th and 17th in the Premier League the previous season.
Premier League 2019/20 Relegation Candidates
Sheffield United 8/11
Sheffield United are the favourites to be relegated with most bookmakers and that could be because they’re returning to the top flight for the first time since 2007. However, despite a lack of Premier League experience as a player, manager Chris Wilder has taken his team from League One to the Premier League in just three seasons. Whether he has what it takes to keep them at the highest level remains to be seen, but 8/11 to be relegated isn’t a value price, with only three teams that were promoted in second place relegated the following season.
Whether last year’s Delia Smith-owned Championship winners will have the right ingredients to stay up remains to be seen, and the big question is whether manager Daniel Farke’s pacey possession football style cuts it against the big teams. Whether it does or doesn’t, their matches should be fun to watch, and odds of around even-money aren’t that big considering only two of the last 10 Championship winners have been relegated the following season.
As six of the last 10 teams to get promoted to the Premier League via the play-offs have been relegated, prices of around 2/1 for Villa to go down seem more than generous. Of course, Villa have a decent past history in the Premier League, whilst owner Tony Xia has spent over £100 Million in the transfer market over the summer. Only time will tell whether that’s money well spent, but it suggests that Villa are willing to do everything in their power to stay up.
Brighton owner Tony Bloom is a professional gambler, and he seems to have taken a real chance on his club’s future by appointing Graham Potter to steer his club to safety this season. Potter was managing Swansea last season and he’ll need to make the Amex Stadium a fortress again if Brighton are to avoid relegation after finishing 16th last season. Brighton need to score more goals, and failure to find a top-notch striker could be a fatal mistake. Plenty of bookmakers are offering 2/1 about Brighton being relegated and, with 14 of the last 30 relegated teams finishing between 14th and 17th the previous season, that looks a value bet.
Burnley are also around 2/1 after finishing 15th last season, but it’s worth remembering that The Clarets made a terrible start in the league after playing some early matches in Europe. Manager Sean Dyche has what it takes to steer Burnley more towards mid-table security rather than the relegation zone.
The Saints looked in real danger in December 2018 but the decision to put Ralph Hasenhuttl in charge paid dividends as he steered them to 16th place in the Premier League. The Austrian looks capable of building on that performance in his first full year in charge at St Marys.
Premier League 2019-20 Relegation Summary
There may be three relegation places to fill, but Brighton look the only real value pre-season relegation bet.
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