Our Swinton Handicap Hurdle Preview [1 Betting Tip Available]

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Our Swinton Handicap Hurdle Preview [1 Betting Tip Available]

Posted May 10, 2019 | By Tim @ Betting Gods

The Swinton Handicap Hurdle (Saturday 11 May, 3.10) is a Grade 3 handicap run over a distance of 1 mile 7 furlongs and 144 yards at Haydock. The race first took place in 1978 and its most notable winners include Intersky Falcon and Macs Joy.

Check out our 10-year-trends, runner-by-runner guide, and free tips for the 2019 Swinton Handicap Hurdle.

Swinton Handicap Hurdle 10-Year-Trends

The last 10 editions of the Swinton Handicap Hurdle have been won by horses aged either four, five, six, or seven.

All 10 winners were rated 141 or less and had run between 14 and 63 days prior to their success in the race.

Nine winners carried between 10-2 and 11-3, with the other winner shouldering top-weight of 11-12 to victory.

Seven out of the 10 winners were returned at odds of 8/1 or lower, but there have also been two 16/1 winners and a 25/1 winner.

Trainer Evan Williams has trained four of the last six winners.

Swinton Handicap Hurdle Runner-By-Runner Guide 2019

La Patriote

Seven-year-old who has won three of his seven starts since being transferred from France including his last two off marks of 135 and 142. Big ask to win this off top-weight off a mark of 148.

Mr Fisher

Exciting five-year-old novice who won over course and distance before finishing midfield in the Supreme Novice Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. Could bounce back but higher-rated than his trainer’s previous winner Eradicate, who won the race twice.

Jenkins

Also trained by Nicky Henderson but, despite a little leniency from the handicapper, he’s hard to fancy having been well-beaten by La Patriote last time.

Leoncavallo

Ran respectably when fifth in the Scottish Champion Hurdle last time but, whilst this race doesn’t look quite as hot a contest, he’s rated higher than ideal and is still 11lb above his last winning mark.

Sofia’s Rock

Rated 140 after just three runs over hurdles and could still have improvement to come as he has won off marks of 90 and 94 on the flat. More interestingly, those two wins both came here at Haydock, which strongly suggests his shrewd young trainer has specially targeted this race.

Champagne City

Ran two excellent races to be second in handicaps on his last two starts but the handicapper has raised him 6lb for those efforts. However, he could still have a race like this in him as he’s another that has run well on the flat off similar marks to the ones that Sofia’a Rock won off.

Christopher Wood

Hard to knock the form of his three runs over hurdles so far, with two wins and an excellent third at Aintree behind two decent four-year-olds. Last win on the flat came off a mark of 81, which suggests he isn’t quite as good as Sofia’s Rock, but he could have more improvement to come as a hurdler.

Fiesole

Formerly trained in Ireland and won at the fourth attempt for his new trainer. Looked impressive that day but has been hit by a big rise in the weights and previous efforts suggest this class may be beyond him.

Dino Velvet

Improved rapidly on his last three runs, winning the first two and finishing second in the Scottish Champion Hurdle. Only slightly higher in the ratings here and no reason why he won’t go close gain.

Nietzsche

Won the Greatwood Hurdle off a feather-weight in November and has run creditably on the flat and over hurdles on his last two starts. However, he’s nowhere near as good as some of these on the flat and he may be susceptible to an improver.

Arthington

Ran one of his better races when second over course and distance last time but he’s gone up 4lb for that run and is raised in class here.

Project Bluebook

Grade 2 hurdle winner at his best and the handicapper has dropped him significantly in the weights after a few average runs in good-company this season. This looks easier than some of those races and his jockey’s 3lb claim makes his mark look very attractive.

John Constable

Won the 2017 edition off a mark of 134 before finishing midfield last year off a welter-burden of 156. Amazingly, finds himself back on a mark of 132 this year after a poor season. However, he could have been freshened up by a break and he’s often been at his best at this time of year. Has to be of interest as he’s trained by Evan Williams, even if he is eight-years-old.

Flying Tiger

Won at the 2017 Cheltenham Festival off a mark of 134, so is definitely handicapped to win off a mark of 133 here. The downside is he’s been beaten 14 times since his last win over hurdles, fences, and on the flat.

Cubswin

Won his last two handicap hurdles under Richard Johnson and the champion jockey is back on board in the bid for a hat-trick. Feasibly weighted on his flat form against the higher-rated horses, but he may not be classy enough.

Kingofthecotswolds

Mark has gone up a few pounds for solid runs in novice and listed hurdles and turns his attentions to handicapping for the first time off a feasible mark. 7lb claimer takes his weight down to just 10-1 and he may have crept under the radar a bit.

Thistimenextyear

Fair horse on the flat and over jumps and ran a good race at the Grand National Meeting when second off a light-weight. Similar scenario here and he could go close.

Swinton Handicap Hurdle Verdict 2019

It’s possible to make a case for plenty of this year’s runners, with the lightly-raced ex-flat horses Sofia’s Rock and Christopher Wood having obvious chances. Kingofthecotswalds and Thistimenextyear are also respected off low-weights.

However, the best handicapped horse in the field could be John Constable, who was out-of-form before landing a gamble when winning the 2017 renewal and returns off a lower-mark this year.

Free Tip For The Swinton Handicap Hurdle 2019
John Constable @ 8.00 WilliamHill, Ladbrokes, Coral
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