As promised in my daily notifications to members of Master Racing Tipster, the first of my weekly reviews is right here:
Monday 12th November
2.15 Southwell – Serenity Now, 1pt each way @ 11/1
Unplaced Loss 2pts
Rider removed hood late and slowly away, in rear, never on terms.
The race was completely lost at the start here as the jockey was slow to get the hood off and Serenity Now. He travelled okay into the race but was kept very wide probably to avoid the kick back but with the slow start and having to race wide the writing was on the wall pretty early on that we would not be collecting on this bet. I doubt very much however, that he would have beaten the winner The Last Debutant who galloped them into the ground and won unchallenged.
2.45 Southwell – Declamation, 1pt win @ 5/1
3rd 7/1 Loss 1pt
Close up, chased leader over 3f out until ridden over 1f out, kept on same
Declamation ran well to finish 3rd he came into the straight travelling well and I felt he was in with a shout turning for home, but the winner Black Salt was travelling equally well, and he pulled clear of Huntsman Cross with Declamation keeping on at the one pace. Declamation last won off 56 in a class 7 so off 62 although he did have a 3lb claimer this higher grade and his mark was probably his undoing. He will be interesting back here in a lesser race.
Tuesday 13th November
3.50 Lingfield – Finnegans Garden, 1pt win @ 5/2
2nd 10/1 Loss 1pt
Held up in touch, headway to chase leaders 4 out, driven to challenge after next, led approaching last, headed soon after, kept on same pace.
I had anticipated that Finnegan’s Garden may not be fully wound up first time out and the way the horse drifted out in the betting to 10-1 that seemed vindicated. I felt before the race that with so many negatives about the others he was still capable of winning and coming to the final fence he looked to have the eventual winner beaten but unfortunately the winner was a bit fitter on the day and outstayed Finnegan’s on the run in. The winner incidentally had not shown much in his last runs but had been supported all day from 6/1 into 3/1 so he was obviously fancied to show improved form. I would also add a mention to the favourite General Brux who was returning to fences and was going very well until making a complete mess of the 7th and falling so long as he is okay after this and his confidence is not dented, he can win a race. With regards to Finnegan’s Garden I would expect him to strip fitter next time out and could hard to beat.
Wednesday 14th November
2.35 Exeter – Just A Sting, 1pt win @ 5/2
WON 2/1 – Profit 2.5pts
In touch, went 2nd 2 out, led before last, before 3 out, ridden before hard pressed run-in, just held on.
The race pretty much went to plan with Just a Sting and Gunfleet dominating the finish both horses travelled well in the race but Just a Sting approached the final fence about a length up on Gunfleet who had moved into second and I was confident that with a good jump he would win however, he jumped the last well but out to the left allowing Gunfleet to come alongside and get his head in front but to his credit once straight Just a Sting ran on well to get back up and win by a head. My heart rate rose a fair bit in those final 100yds, but it was one that went our way. The winner can be expected to improve again but he would not want the ground too soft whilst Gunfleet who was making his seasonal return and giving our selection 3lb comes out with plenty of credit and should win a race soon.
7.00 Kempton – Zain Hana, 1pt win @ 4/1
Unplaced Loss 1pt
Hampered start, held up, never dangerous.
Frifted in the betting late on and in truth I was a bit disappointed with the run. He did not start well as he was done no favours by Merlin who was berthed next to him in stall 1. Merlin veered to his left coming out the stalls impeding Zain Hana who lost his chance to get a prominent position early and ended up further back than ideal. He then found himself behind and boxed in around the 3 pole and with 2f to go he was unable to get a clear run and whilst his jockey eventually switched inside, he really did not make up much ground on the leaders so whilst the race panned out against him, I am not convinced he would have won anyway.
Thursday 15th November
Friday 16th November
1.15 Cheltenham – Dostel Phil, 1pt win @ 5/2
Unplaced Loss 1pt
Mid-division, driven to chase leaders 2 out, one pace before last, weakened flat.
Never looked like winning, failed to settle in the race and was never fluent at his hurdles. He may do better once they get him to settle but a race to forget for me.
Saturday 17th November
2.25 Cheltenham – Javert, 0.5pt ew @ 33/1
Placed 6th Loss of 1pt (Although profit 2.47pts for anyone that bet with SkyBet)
Tracked leaders, driven after 3 out, one pace and no impression before next, weakened flat.
Out ran his odds as I expected and coming to out he looked a cert for a top 4 place but weakened out of it to finish 6th although may have been a bit fortunate due to the faller at the last but hopefully some of you placed the bet Sky bet who paid out on the 1st 6 home which generated a profit of 2.47 pts after the rule 4. Unfortunately for the record and to be fair to those that could not place with Skybet it will go down as a losing selection.
2.45 Lingfield – Master Of The World, 1pt win @ 5/1
WON 6/1 – Profit 5pts (6pts for those who got BOG)
In touch, headway entering final furlong, ridden and ran on to lead close home.
This race could not have worked out any better because Addeyyb as I feared does not see out the trip, I thought the 5/1 offered for our selection was good value considering the record the horse has at this track, but the 6/1 SP was superb. I was always feeling confident during the race as the horse was travelling well on the rail just off the leaders and was produced to run down the leader inside the final furlong as he has done before a good ride and a job well done, I doubt he will be quite as ignored in the betting next time out but you never know.
3.15 Lingfield – Gifted Master, 2pt win 5/2
Unplaced Loss 2pts
Raced wide soon tracked leader, pushed along and unable to quicken 2f out, ridden and edged right entering final furlong, no extra and edged left towards finish.
Disappointing to lose 2pts on the race after such a good start to the day but I felt Gifted Master’s form was the best in the race and expected him to get across from his draw which he did but unlike last year he did have to work harder to get there and whilst he had every chance coming into the straight it looked like the early exertions where showing and I knew he had little left to his credit he was only beaten one and a half lengths in the end.
Sunday 18th November
3.00 Cheltenham – Silver Streak, 1pt ew @ 8/1
2nd beaten a Neck – Profit 0.60pts (1.40pts with BOG)
Towards rear, headway 2 out (usual 3 out), chased front pair turning in, ridden to challenge over 1f out, kept on and every chance final furlong, just held.
So close to landing this for us and making it an excellent week but I have no excuses here he travelled the shortest route up the inside and ran on strongly just failing to reel in the winner by a neck it was a terrific effort off a 6lb higher mark.
Final Weekly Profit
-1.90pts (if you got the 6 places for Javert and BOG it was a small profit of 2.63pts)
I am reasonably happy with how the selections are performing. Getting BOG where you can and taking the extra place when betting each way can make a big difference as shown this week where a 1.90pt loss was turned into a 2.63pt profit which I hope many of you were able to get. It is frustrating ending up a neck away from a nice profit on the week but that is the way it goes in this game and next time hopefully it will go our way.
Just to give a quick insight; I try to aim where I can for a minimum of 3.50pts profit per week; nothing over the top but an achievable amount. It does not always work out that way but the way I bet seems to keep the losses to a minimum when they occur. The previous week for example was a profit of 5.5pts so ahead of what I aim for.
Looking forward to a new week, good luck.