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Lincoln Handicap 10-Year-Trends

March 29, 2017

The Turf-Flat Season traditionally starts with the Lincoln Handicap Meeting, a race that started life as the Lincolnshire Handicap in 1849. However, when that racecourse was forced to close in 1965, the race was moved to its present home at Doncaster Racecourse where it was given the name the Lincoln Handicap. It is run over a distance of 1-mile and is open to horses aged 4 and older and takes place at 15:35 on 1st April.

With a view to helping you pinpoint the winner, we’ve unearthed the biggest trends from the last 10-years.


Age

Winners of the Lincoln Handicap tend to be aged 4, 5 or 6, and only two winners have been aged older than 6 since the race moved to Doncaster in 1965. The last older winner was Hunters Of Brora in 1998 (an 8-year-old). The last 9 renewals have been won by four 4-year-olds, two 5-year-olds and three 6-year-olds.


The Draw

The Draw hasn’t been that significant in recent renewals, with the last 9 winners being drawn 12, 1, 9, 16, 12, 3, 3, 15 and 22. Meanwhile, the placed horses (second, third and fourth) have been drawn 3, 16, 5, 5, 10, 14, 2, 3, 20, 19, 6, 15, 21 9, 2, 1, 19, 10, 22, 20, 18, 6, 19, 12, 2, 18 and 21.


Weight Carried

The last 10 winners have carried between 8-4 and 9-4, with 9 winners actually carrying between 8-9 and 9-4. Meanwhile, 6 of the last 7 winners have carried between 9-0 and 9-4, with the last 3 winners carrying 9-3, 9-0 and 9-4.


Winners’ Ratings

The last 9 winners have been rated 95, 97, 98, 104, 95, 90, 102, 100 and 100.


Winners’ SPs

The 2009 and 2010 winners Expresso Star and Penitent were both well-backed favourites, that were respectively sent-off at 10/3 and 3/1 having been much bigger prices in the morning. However, the other 7 of the last 9 winners were all returned in double-figures: 10/1, 16/1, 25/1, 20/1, 20/1, 12/1 and 12/1. ,


Trainers Who Do Well In The Race

William Haggas and Richard Fahey have both trained 2 of the last 10 winners, with Haggas training 2007 winner Very Wise and 2010 winner Penitent. Meanwhile, Fahey has had a phenomenal record in the race since saddling the runner-up in 2010. He again saddled the runner-up in 2011, before recording the first of his wins in the race with Brae Hill in 2012. He then saddled the third and the fourth in 2013, and his second winner Garial in 2015.


Lincoln Handicap Summary

Recent renewals suggest the winner will be aged 4, 5 or 6, rated around 100, and likely carrying 9-0 or slightly more. Meanwhile, don’t be put-off a horse at a decent price as the last 6 winners were returned between 12/1 and 25/1. Being trained by Richard Fahey may be another plus-point.

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