It’s Time To Start Thinking Like A Bookie
Published on 11/07/17
One of the oldest sayings in racing is you’ll never see a poor bookie – so, if you’re not making a profit out of punting, maybe it’s time you started thinking like a bookie.
When I say, think like a bookie, I don’t mean swap from backing horses to laying horses. What I do mean is think why a bookie might be happy to stand there and lay certain horses – because, if he’s happy to lay certain kinds of horses, then he must think they don’t offer value to the punters in the long run.
Take On The Favourite
As many punters are compelled to back favourites, one of the first things that a bookmaker considers is whether he thinks the favourite might get beat. There are times when a favourite may be a horse that has built up a massive popularity with racing fans and punters, and punters often bet on this type of horse with their hearts rather than their heads. This means that this type of horse, especially when they go into decline, will be massively over-bet, and bookies are happy to stand these horses until the cows come home. Sure, some of them win, but not as many as punters think will win, and that’s why the bookies satchels are often bulging.
Watch The Weather
Bookmakers must love the English Weather, as many punters still don’t consider ground conditions before they place a bet. Even those who do are prone to taking the word of often misguided weathermen, and that’s why bookies get even braver when weather reports are mixed at best. If you follow the tips of a newspaper tipster who has written his analysis and tips the previous evening, he may well have done so without really considering the implications of the weather. Therefore, for example, many bookies are willing to lay horses in the early markets that like prevailing conditions to much higher amounts if there is the potential of rain, as getting them in the book early gives them a massive chance of winning a big amount of money if ground conditions go against these horses. Therefore, just think twice before betting too much when weather reports are mixed.
Proven Form Or Potential
Summer Flat Racing is a perfect example of a time when bookmakers are willing to take a chance by heavily laying horses with proven form in handicaps, as this is when many three-year-olds are pitched into handicaps for the first time against their elders. It’s a time when many of these three-year-old get a generous weight-allowance, and also get the chance to carry low-weights for the first time in their careers. They may also have only raced in small-fields where the pace was even throughout, and they may just relish the chance to race at a fast pace for the first time. The bookies also know that some late-maturing three-year-olds will suddenly improve out of all recognition as they fill their frames – all of which is music to the bookies ears.