Both the ATP Dubai and ATP Sao Paulo look worth tackling this week, with a decent big-priced value shot in Sao Paolo, and a choice of bets in Dubai, depending on your betting preferences.
The last 7 renewals have either been won by Novak Djokovic (4) or Roger Federer (3) but, whilst this would have been a week that an each-way bet on Roger Federer may have paid dividends against the world number 1, the Swiss star is unfortunately injured.
Therefore, the only thing looking to stand in the way of Djokovic is himself and, only if he’s not been practising hard enough in between winning the Australian Open and making his next appearance here, will anyone else in the field have a chance. The bad news is that the Serb is a best-priced 2/5 to make it 5 Dubai titles – and that’s a price that only the odds-on lumpers will want to avail themselves of plenty of.
For those who prefer to look for a bit of each-way value against the favourite, in the hope he’ll be solely focused on trying to complete the grand-slam this year, then it seems wise to look for a bet in the opposite half of the draw to Djokovic. The two players that standout are Wawrinka and Berdych and, with Wawrinka likely to be plotting the easiest route possible to his defence of the French Open, Berdych may be the answer.
Berdych made the final here in both 2013 and 2014, losing to Djokovic and Federer, and he likes the fast courts which give him more chance of hitting a greater number of outright winners. You can get 12/1 (1/3 odds 2 places), which means you’re getting even-money he reaches the final – with a big bonus should he somehow win.
Big Hitters Bet: Djokovic win @ 2/5 (Various Bookmakers)
Value-Seekers Bet: Berdych each-way @ 12/1 (Paddy Power) 1/3 odds 2 places
ATP Sao Paulo
The ATP Sao Paulo brings the South American clay-court swing to an end, and only Paire out of the world’s top-30 is playing, and this will be his first clay-court start of the season.
Paire could do the business, but much more appealing at the odds is Ramos-Vinolas who has caught the eye on numerous occasions over the last few months, including when claiming Roger Federer amongst his victims. He may have exited in the round of 16 last-week, but that was to David Ferrer, and Ramos-Vinolas is already a clay-court semi-finalist in Quito this season. He was also a semi-finalist here in 2012, and looks to be playing some of the best tennis of his career at the moment – making him look a value each-way bet.
Ramos-Vinolas each-way @ 22/1 (Ladbrokes, Skybet) ½ odds 2 places