Irish Oaks Preview
Published on 14/07/16
The Irish Oaks (Saturday 5.45) has been run over 12-furlongs since 1915. It is run at the Curragh, and is the second of the Irish Classics for fillies.
Aidan O’Brien has trained four winners in the last decade though, after training a hat-trick between 2008 and 2008, he has only trained one winner since. No jockey riding in this year’s race has won the race more than once, though the now retired Johnny Murtagh rode 3 of the last 10 winners.
12 runners are set to go to post for the 2016 Irish Oaks.
Ajman Princess 7/1
Has finished second in all four of her starts so far, the best of which was her second behind Even Song at Royal Ascot. Slightly quicker ground here could let her close the gap, but yet to get the winning habit.
An Cailin Orga 100/1
Finished 6 of 13 in a course and distance handicap last time, and can’t win based on that run.
Repaid the faith of her connections when finishing second after being supplemented for the Epsom Oaks, but appeared not to like the soft ground when well-beaten behind Even Song at Royal Ascot. Not without a chance if putting her best foot forward for last year’s winning trainer.
Even Song 8/11
Was backed like defeat was out of the question at Royal Ascot, and duly obliged. It’s possible that improvement coincided with running on soft ground, but still a worthy favourite.
Finished third in the Epsom Oaks but has 8-lengths to make up on Architecture, and that looks a tough ask unless that one underperforms.
Pretty Perfect 16/1
Always looked a middle-distance horse, and no surprise that she won a Group-3 contest on her first attempt at 12-furlongs. She also wouldn’t be the first Aidan O’Brien trained winner of this race who was only the supposed second or third string.
Red Stars 40/1
Didn’t make much of an impression in the Guineas or Oaks trials, but took listed honours over 11-furlongs last-time. Looks sure to appreciate extra furlong here, but unlikely to prove good enough.
Seventh Heaven 33/1
One of Aidan O’Brien’s outsiders in the Epsom Oaks, and ran like one.
The Cheshire Oaks winner was only 7/1 at Epsom, but set off far too fast. Could be over-priced here if settling better.
Turrett Rocks 16/1
Had some very decent two-year-old form but, after a decent sixth in the English 1,000 Guineas, she appeared not to stay in the Epsom Oaks, though may not have handled the track.
Way To My Heart 200/1
Beaten in two handicaps off marks in the 70’s, and no chance on that form.
We Are Ninety 25/1
Listed winner on good, and was only beaten 3-lengths by Even Song at Royal Ascot. She also got stuck behind horses there, before not quite seeing out the trip on the soft ground. Runs for last year’s winning trainer/jockey combination, and could outrun her odds.
Irish Oaks Summary
A win for Even Song would be no shock but, as she’s odds on, most punters will be trying to find the each-way value. Pretty Perfect and We Are Ninety both have room for improvement, and only one would need to place to make a profit if you back both of them.