How To Trade On Football: Outright Market Bets
Published on 14/10/17
In football there are many ways to generate profits using trading strategies. Today we are going to give tips on how you can use trading to generate healthy profits through outright markets in football.
Why Is This Market Perfect For Trading?
Whilst a full game of football can provide many surprises, it makes it difficult to bet on throughout the season. Long term outright markets that may be bet on by punters, may include Title winner, Relegation and top goalscorer, all rather difficult to predict until the latter stage of the season where value is low. However, with trading you can trade your position on long-term football outright markets accordingly towards the many surprises that feature in a season of football.
There are a few factors that you should consider though when trading on outright markets, these include:
Depth of the Squad
Winning and losing streaks
Injuries and/or suspensions
All of what has been mentioned above can be difficult to predict, however they can create an ample amount of trading opportunities for punters who are on the lookout for value.
It all begins at the start of the season, where many punters put a bet on their Premier League winner. We suggest that you explore another option instead of doing this, and to instead trade long term outright markets on a betting exchange where you can hedge your backed bets through laying; this is a back to lay strategy. Alternatively, you can lay to back instead, which is as beneficial as the back to lay strategy.
The two strategies work as follows:
Back to lay – Firstly you must identify an outcome which has been undervalued by the market. You then back at the high odds that are priced to the outcome, and then lay if the odds change in your favour as the season goes on.
Lay to back – Firstly you must identify an outcome which has been overvalued by the market. You then lay the low odds that are priced to the outcome, and then back if needed as the odds get large enough for you to achieve a profit.
It is imperative to back at high odds, and to lay at low odds.
What Factors Do I Need To Consider When Trading Outright Markets?
We have outlined the key factors previously in this guide, and will now go into depth with each factor.
Often, the team with the highest player wage bill wins the league, and the teams with the lowest wage bill often gets relegated. Despite this not happening every season, the relationship is incredibly high.
As seen this season, Chelsea, who are current champions, failed to spend as much as the other two Manchester Clubs, and have already dropped back in the title race already due to the massive improvements of both clubs. Manchester City and United both took care of their business rather fast, and pay their players an awful lot of money.
Although Leicester won the league in 15/16 with one of the lowest wage bills in the league, overall the team who spends the most on players and wages tend to win, or at least challenge for the title.
With wage bill information, you can predict the long-term success or failure of a team, and trading your position if you feel as if a team is over or underperforming relative to the wages of their players. You can then find odds that are of excellent value as surprises decrease and the season settles down.
It is important to identify the teams that are most likely to struggle, due to selling players, not buying players, or coming up from the lower division with an incompetent group of players compared to the other teams.
As discussed briefly in the wages factor, transfer activity regarding players and managers can affect the odds of outright markets massively.
Analysing the excitement surrounding a new player, or even manager, and monitoring the reaction of the market can lead to opportunities for profit too. Simply lay when the markets have overreacted, and back the opposite.
Also, it would be worth analysing the sides who have sold their best players and haven’t brought any replacements, as they will probably struggle during the season.
Winning and losing streaks
Often, markets can react to quickly when a team goes on a winning streak of just a few games. Traders who are unwise would have backed City to win the league at a very low price, whereas wise traders would’ve known that the season is extremely long, and surprises are bound to happen along the way. Following the latter approach allows a trader to be presented with numerous opportunities to guarantee themselves a profit.
The opposite thing can happen with sides that go through very bad periods, with markets reacting quite quickly.
Analysing the fixture list can lead to a trader finding value trades in the outright markets. With this though, be wary of the following runs of fixtures:
Periods where there are a lot of games in a short amount of time
Easy and hard runs of games
How many competitions a team is in
End of season runs for clubs who are close to the relegation zone
Injuries to key players
This alone can impact the markets, as many teams are nowhere near as good without their star player(s). On the other hand, if a player is due to return, it can see a change in the value of the markets too, despite not being fully fit.
Opportunities for punters to trade will be introduced if they can accurately recognise the potential impact that injured players can have on a teams’ chances of winning or losing.