How To Pick The Grand National Winner 2019
Published on 05/04/19
The winner of the first Grand National in 1839 was called Lottery and, ever since, millions of punters have considered that picking Grand National winners is a lottery.
However, whilst some pin-stickers may get lucky, there is a lot of Grand National statistics that might help you narrow down the field and pick the winner.
Check out our stats, runner-by-runner guide, and free tips for the Grand National.
Grand National Statistics 10-Year-Statistics
All winners of the last 10 Grand Nationals have been aged between eight and eleven and had run between 21 and 84 days prior to their success. They had also had at least three runs in the season of their Grand National win.
Eight of those winners were rated between 143 and 157, with the other two rated 137 and 160. Seven of the last 10 winners carried 11-0 or less to victory, with the others carrying 11-5, 11-6, and 11-9.
Favourites haven’t enjoyed much success in the last decade, with only the 10/1 joint-favourite Don’t Push It winning in 2010. Tiger Roll was also returned the 10/1 second favourite last year, whilst six of the other eight winners were returned between 14/1 and 33/1, with 66/1 and 100/1 shots also successful.
No horse has won the Grand National more than once since Red Rum, who won in 1973, 74, and 77. Indeed, only one of the last ten winners had run in the race before. Seven of the last two winners also didn’t run at the Cheltenham Festival that year.
Eight of the last 12 horses to finish in the top-four in the Grand National were trained in Ireland.
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Grand National Runner-By-Runner Guide 2019
Placed in the last two Cheltenham Gold Cups and last year’s Grand National but will be looking to become the first top-weight to win since Red Rum. A mark of 164 is also higher than average, but he is rated 172 after finishing second in this year’s Gold Cup.
The handicapper didn’t cut him any slack for being pulled up in the Cotswald Chase last time and a mark of 160 and 11-6 on his back looks a tough ask.
Last year’s winner has looked so good on his last two starts that it’s impossible to dismiss his chances. However, whilst he looks sure to go off a short-priced favourite, a mark of 159 and 11-5 on his back doesn’t make winning a second Grand National a formality.
Multiple grade one winner for Gigginstown Stud but his form has dipped this year. It’s also strange that he was sold to a new owner this week, so surely the previous owners think he doesn’t really have much of a chance.
Another multiple grade one winner, including here at Aintree. However, it’s a long time since he ran to that level and Gigginstown Stud also sold him to a new owner this week.
Won well over three-miles in January but that was an ill-timed win as he’s now six pounds higher here. That’s a tough ask and he’s never looked like a horse that wants to go 4 miles 2½ furlongs.
Has won some decent big-field handicaps in his career but, having finished behind Jury Duty in receipt of 10lb last time, he must now concede that horse 6lb here. He’s also raced just twice this season.
Was a seriously good winner of the 2016 National Hunt Chase, when he beat Native River. He’s also finished second in a Cheltenham Gold Cup, when he stayed on powerfully in the closing stages. However, though he’s fantastically handicapped on the form of those two runs, he’s not shown much worthwhile form recently. Connections also think he needs good ground.
Lake View Lad
Comes into the race having had an excellent season with big wins at Newcastle and Wetherby. However, his excellent third at the Cheltenham Festival may count against him and he carries 11-1.
Bidding to become only the second horse in the last 11 years to have run in a previous Grand National before winning it. He’s also had just two runs this season, though he did only have two last year before finishing second.
Ran an excellent race to be second in last season’s Scottish Grand National but it’s a concern that this sometimes dodgy-jumper fell over the Grand National fences earlier in the season.
First of the horses in the field to carry 11-0 and, though the form of his latest win wasn’t the greatest, he could find improvement for this marathon trip. Needs to though as he’s 7lb higher here. The booking of Jack Kennedy does suggest he’s one of the more fancied Gordon Elliott runners and he’s twice won back-to-back races in his career.
Only had one run this season but other than that, it’s easy to give him a real chance. Proved he stays four-miles when winning the 2018 National Hunt Chase, and the form of that race has worked out well. He also looked good on his one run this season when beating a much higher-rated horse when not favoured by the weights.
One For Arthur
The 2017 winner has obviously proved he loves this test, but he’s six pounds higher than when winning, and it’s hard to be confident that he’s as good now after unseating twice after returning from an injury.
Rock The Kasbah
Carries 10-13, just as he did when winning on the second of three starts this season, but he is six pounds higher in the handicap and flopped off this mark last time. Promises to stay but no winner in the last decade hadn’t had a prep run in the same calendar year.
Won over the Grand National fences off a six pounds lower-mark over a shorter trip earlier this season but was pulled up in the race last year when appearing to be a non-stayer.
Finished eighth off a two pounds lower mark behind One For Arthur in 2017 and has also had just two runs this season, neither of which suggested he would be winning this.
Magic Of Light
Connections won the Aintree Hurdle this week, but this mare looks up against it after finishing seventh at the Cheltenham Festival, with the second and third in that race looking to have better chances.
A Toi Phil
Done most of his winning over trips around two and a half miles and he doesn’t look a likely winner. More likely that Gordon Elliott is just keeping another potentially well-handicapped runner from running near the foot of the weights.
Quite impressive when giving Mala Beach ten pounds and a beating last time and is sixteen pounds better off with that rival here. That 3 miles and 2 furlongs race was the furthest he’d won over, However, he unseated when looking beaten in the 2018 National Hunt Chase behind Rathvinden and is only three pounds better off.
Finished sixth in the 2017 Irish Grand National but wasn’t going anywhere in the final stages. Also hasn’t done much in two runs since returning from injury.
Only handicap win came off a mark of 137 and he’s generally struggled since off his current mark of 150. Finished well behind Dounikos two starts ago.
Ramses De Teille
Finished second in the Welsh National and Haydock’s Grand National Trial this season but the form of those wins hasn’t been franked since. He could improve for this extra distance, but the last winning seven-year-old was before World War II.
Tea For Two
Won the 2016 Betway Bowl at Aintree but has been regressive since that Herculean effort. Unseated in the Cross Country and hard to fancy even if he looks tremendously well-handicapped on his past form.
Just A Par
Too old, ran in the race before, and hasn’t been seen this year are three reasons not to back this outsider.
Impressed when winning the Bet365 Gold Cup off a light-weight last season but is rated 12 pounds higher here. Does only have to carry 11-7 but tendency to jump right could cause problems at some of the sharp left-handed fences.
Didn’t look to stay three miles five furlongs in the Classic Chase at Warwick but he’s won two Topham Chases and finished third in a Becher Chase over these fences. Chance if he stays but he might not.
Blow By Blow
Only two pounds higher than when winning over hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival but, on the back of several dismal runs over fences, needs a wind operation to have a dramatic effect.
Up For Review
Given a very sympathetic ride in the Thyestes Chase in January and looked a potential winner of the Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham before a mistake ended his chances. Gets a nice low-weight here and could go well.
Likeable sort but has been beaten several times off his current mark. Needs the combination of this marathon trip and a low-weight to bring about some improvement.
Vieux Lion Rouge
Finished seventh, sixth, and ninth in the last three editions and it’s hard to see him winning even with his stable in form. Could be worth a top-10 bet if any bookies are offering that sort of market.
Former grade one winning chaser that has been running well below his best for a while now. Beaten 56-lengths last year off a 12lb higher-mark and looks the type that could sneak into the frame with the chance to carry a low-weight in a handicap for the first time in his career.
Owned by two-time Grand National winner Trevor Hemmings and this race will have been his aim since he was bought. Has won at Aintree over the regulation fences and proved he stays four miles when third in last year’s Scottish Grand National. Great each-way chance off a light-weight with the only negative being he ran at the Cheltenham Festival.
Won last year’s Irish Grand National off a light-weight and could easily go close here off another light-weight. Slight surprise connections ran him at Cheltenham but that didn’t stop their Tiger Roll winning last year.
Looks a non-stayer but jockey has an excellent record in the race.
Unfortunate fourth in last year’s Irish Grand National but form not as good this year at the age of 12.
Ran in last year race and seems to hate these fences
Bless The Wings
Ran third off this mark last year but he’s now 14 and his form has not been as good this season.
Shock winner of last year’s Scottish Grand National and, despite two below par runs this season over shorter, he could relish the return to a marathon trip.
Grand National 2019 Verdict
No horse looks a 100% perfect fit for this year’s Grand National, but four horses make the shortlist.
Rathvinden looks a great chance for Ruby Walsh to ride a second Grand National winner, despite him having just one run this season. Up For Review could also go well for Trainer Willie Mullins off a nice low-weight, whilst last year’s Irish Grand National winner General Principle could also go close as he should relish this stamina test.
There’s also room for one English trained runner and Vintage Clouds has long been targeted at this race and looks to have everything needed of a National winner, with running at the Cheltenham Festival the only slight negative.
[su_service title=”Free Tip For The Grand National 2019″ icon=”icon: tipeee” icon_color=”#FA6B03″ size=”30″]Rathvinden (6 Places Each-Way) @ 10.00 Ladbrokes, Coral, 888Sport, Boylesports[/su_service]
[su_service title=”Free Tip For The Grand National 2019″ icon=”icon: tipeee” icon_color=”#FA6B03″ size=”30″]Up For Review (6 Places Each-Way) @ 41.00 10Bet, BetHard, WilliamHill, BetVictor[/su_service]
[su_service title=”Free Tip For The Grand National 2019″ icon=”icon: tipeee” icon_color=”#FA6B03″ size=”30″]General Principle (6 Places Each-Way) @ 41.00 10Bet, BetHard, WilliamHill, BetVictor[/su_service]
[su_service title=”Free Tip For The Grand National 2019″ icon=”icon: tipeee” icon_color=”#FA6B03″ size=”30″]Vintage Clouds (6 Places Each-Way) @ 13.00 BetVictor, 888Sport, Boylesports, Betway[/su_service]
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