Houblon For The Hennessy – Horse Racing Tips

Posted November 28, 2015

By Tim @ Betting Gods

The Hennessy (3.00 Newbury) is a grade-3 handicap chase that provides horses with a gruelling test of 21 fences spread out over 3 miles 2½ furlongs, especially when the ground is riding soft.

Hennessey

Despite that, those higher in the weights have fared much the better over the last decade with 8 of the 10 winners carrying 11-1 or more – suggesting a fair amount of class is required to win most renewals. 7-year-olds have won 6 of the last 10, with two 6-year-olds, one 8-year-old, and one 9-year-old also winning.

Trainer Nicky Henderson leads the way with 3 winners in the last 10 years, whilst Paul Nicholls has had two winners, as has jockey Barry Geraghty.

17 runners are set to line-up this year – so here’s our analysis.

Saphir Du Rheu 9/2

Won his 3 completed chases, but has a big rating and weight to overcome. Also not won any of his 3 course starts, including a novice chase here at this meeting last year.

The Druids Nephew 16/1

Only 7th in last year’s race off 141, but now rated 156.

The Giant Bolster 40/1

Classy but yet to win any of his 5 course starts, and prefers Cheltenham.

Houblon Des Obeaux 16/1

1lb lower than when 2nd to Many Clouds last year, and 6lb lower than when chasing home Coneygree over 3-miles here in February. A return to that form gives him an obvious chance.

Smad Place 7/1

1lb worse of with Houblon Des Obeaux despite finishing well behind him last year. Has had the benefit of a prep race this time around.

Bobs Worth 7/1

If back to anything like the horse that won this off a 7lb higher mark in 2012 and then won the 2013 Gold Cup – he’ll win. But he is 10, and soft ground has been used as an excuse before.

Fox Appeal 50/1

The Emma Lavelle runners have been out-of-form this week, and this one prefers to go right-handed.

The Young Master 11/1

Every chance on his runs in novice chases last year, and this stamina test could really suit.

Splash Of Ginge 50/1

Won the Betfair Hurdle here, and interesting is he stays, though that’s not guaranteed.

If In Doubt 8/1

Been the big market mover this week after Barry Geraghty was confirmed to ride, but not obviously well-handicapped against classy opposition.

Flight Lieutenant 20/1

An obvious chance on his second to Bobs Worth in 2012 (6lb better off). Ran his best race for a while last-time too, but is 10.

Fingal Bay 14/1

Talented performer, but not the toughest, and you usually need toughness in abundance.

Benbens 50/1

Admirable staying 10-year-old, but this is probably too classy for him.

Al Co 100/1

Handicapper given him a chance off just a 3lb higher mark than when winning the 2014 Scottish Grand National, however would need a personal best.

Ned Stark 12/1

Highly thought of by his trainer, but would have to leave his last two runs well behind.

Urano 33/1

Has to be respected from the Willie Mullins stable, but this much classier than the races he’s been running in and not winning.

Theatre Guide 20/1

3rd in the 2013 renewal and is 6lb lower this time around. Place claims for inform stable.

Tip

Bobs Worth could win this by half-a-furlong if returning to his best but, at the prices, Houblon Des Obeaux is a sporting each-way selection to go one better than when twice runner-up at the course last year, behind the subsequent Gold Cup and Grand National winners.

Houblon Des Obeaux each-way @ 16/1 (Betfair Sportsbook)

Published Under: UK Horse Racing /

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