Nothing could have possibly polarised the ups and downs of horse racing better than last week’s two selections. Headline selection Irving (6/4) had the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton at his mercy as he jumped the final obstacle only to crumble on landing, whilst a few minutes later November Handicap selection Open Eagle won like he was a 12/1 on favourite rather than 12/1 against.
Still, it meant last week’s horse racing tips netted a nice 24 points profit.
This week’s horse racing tips both come from Cheltenham which stages the Paddy Power Gold Cup on Saturday and the Greatwood Hurdle on Sunday.
Paddy Power Gold Cup
Ten-year trends reveal some interesting statistics with six of the last ten winners being 7-year-olds, whilst three have been 6-year-olds and one 8-year-old.
Seven of the last ten winners have also carried 10-13 or less (five 10-7 or less), whilst the three winners who shouldered more than 11-2, Our Vic, Exotic Dancer and Al Ferof went on to prove themselves top-class, though the highest rated horse, future Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander, carried only 10-7 to victory.
In the last decade, the Pipe stable have trained the winner three times (David 1, Martin 2), whilst Nigel Twiston Davies and Jonjo O’Neill have both bagged a brace.
This year none of the horses who look likely to be asked to carry over 11-0 look to have the necessary class to progress to top-class performers, and it looks better to concentrate on those horses with lighter weights.
Buywise is only one 7-year-old who fits the description and he must be at the top of the list statistically. I’m also going to take an absolute flyer on Caid Du Berlais who, having finished placed in both his hurdle runs at Cheltenham, may just become the first winning 5-yearold since Cyfor Malta in 1998 on his first foray over fences at the course.
2 points each-way Buywise @ 9/1
1 point each-way Caid Du Berlais @ 25/1
Ten-year trends show that it’s five wins each for horses carrying 11-0 or more or 10-13 or less, whilst three 4-year-olds, four 5-year-olds, two 6-year-olds and one 7-year-old have claimed victory. In that time, Philip Hobbs has trained three winners with no other trainer winning it more than once.
Philip Hobbs saddles just one runner this year in the shape of his improving 5-year-old Garde La Victoire and he warrants being the main selection, However, it’s interesting that Tom George has managed to get Olofi’s handicap rating down to a one-pound lower mark than in 2012 and, despite him being an 8-year-old, he warrants a saver.
2 points each-way Garde La Victoire @ 12/1
1 point each-way Olofi @ 20/1