Last Saturday was another profitable one for the horse racing blog as Tea For Two romped home in the Lanzarote Hurdle at 9/2 (advised 13/2) – giving us a nice 14½ points profit on the day.
This Saturday, the big races are the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock and the Clarence House Chase at Ascot – which is noteworthy for the return of 2013 Champion Chase winner Sprinter Sacre.
The Peter Marsh Chase, Haydock, Saturday 3.15pm
The weight carrying performances of the last ten winners are split equally between those carrying 11-0 or more or 10-13 or less, whilst 8-yearolds have won 5 of the last 10 renewals. Two 9-yearolds, and one 10, 11 and 12-yearold have also won.
No trainer or jockey has one more than one of those renewals, though 4 winning trainers and one winning jockey are represented here.
Top-weight Hey Big Spender races off a career high mark, as does No Planning, whilst Corrin Wood looks harshly handicapped on quite a few formlines.
Green Flag is actually 3lb lower than when finishing 4th behind Gold Cup hope Holywell at last season’s Cheltenham Festival and has been highly tried since, whilst Vintage Star also looks nicely handicapped on his runs over course and distance.
The one with the course and distance form that stands out the most though is Broadway Buffalo who won here two starts ago off 129, has won over hurdles here off 135, and races off a mark of just 137 this time. His chase win here was also visually stunning, creeping into contention steadily on the heavy ground and winning cosily. He flopped at Wetherby last-time, and this is a hotter race, but 7/1 looks a good price.
A saver on Green Flag at 8/1 is also advised as Lucinda Russell’s team are in very good nick at the moment. Only Hills are betting on the race at the time of writing – so it’s possible better prices will be available – however the 7s and 8s look perfectly acceptable.
Broadway Buffalo @ 7/1
Green Flag @ 8/1
Clarence House Chase, Ascot, Saturday 3pm
A maximum 5 runners go to post for this £70,000 to the winner contest and most national hunt enthusiasts will be hoping to see Sprinter Sacre return to former glories and win easily. He’s officially rated between 23lb and 26lb better than Dodging bullets, Twinlight and Somersby – and should win if anywhere near his best.
If you want to find a reason to take Sprinter Sacre on statistically, then only one winner in the last 10 years has been aged older than 8 (Sprinter Sacre is 9). However it’s hard to choose between Tingle Creek winner Dodging Bullets, Dial-A-Bet winner Twinlight and Somersby, who has run some of his best races at the track, and if you don’t want to take Sprinter Sacre on then you may be best to lay him on the exchanges.
The money has seen Sprinter Sacre’s price drop from 2/1 this week, but the even-money still looks a shade of value when you consider he would be around 1/5 if connection knew he was back to his best.
5 points Sprinter Sacre @ even-money