I think it’s safe to say none of us expected that, not since 1992 have the polls got it so wrong. Back then they predicted Labour were on course for a majority, with even the 10pm exit poll predicting that Neil Kinnock would be Prime Minister. Perhaps when last night’s exit poll was released Cameron held his breath and Miliband crossed his fingers.
However, it seems this particular exit poll was pretty accurate. Cameron has won an overall majority, with the odds of that three days ago at 8/1, we didn’t see that coming. If you had a wager on Cameron remaining in number 10, with the price on Tuesday at 19/20, you can be reasonably pleased with yourself. The SNP’s sweep of Scotland seems to be one of the only correct predictions from the polls, no one is surprised at that.
The tide of unexpected events continues, with three resignations today. Ed Miliband has resigned, the party having lost all faith in their leader after such a disastrous outcome, even if they’d never admit it publicly. Nick Clegg’s position was nothing but untenable after such a devastating loss in the number of seats. Farage’s loss in Thanet South has resulted in him standing down as UKIP leader, as he always said he would should he fail to win a seat.
So, let’s get to bets from here on in. Betting on who will be the next Labour leader is underway.
Next Labour leader – Andy Burnham @ 2/1 (Bet365)
TV pundits have said Labour will fear going into a leadership race too quickly after the election, given that’s what they did last time, which left the coalition to push through policy without necessarily being challenged enough. But when they do, the clear favourite is Burnham.
Next Liberal Democrat leader – Tim Farron @ 1/4 (Betfair)
The new Liberal Democrat leader will, with as much certainty as there can be, surely be no other that Tim Farron, for which you will get a paltry 1/4 from Betfair.
Next UKIP leader – Douglas Carswell @ 4/7 (Paddy Power)
The new leader of UKIP? They have only one MP, so surely Douglas Carswell?
Prime Minister after the 2020 General Election – Theresa May @ 189/1 (Betfair)
If you fancy getting in early, you can have a wager on the 2020 general election. Could we be on the way to a second female Prime Minister? Theresa May is favourite for the premier role, with Betfair offering 189/1. But when there is a leadership contest at the end of this parliament when Cameron stands down – as he said he will – it’s likely to a race between her and Boris Johnson.
Referendum on EU membership – UK to vote to remain in the EU @ 1/2 (William Hill)
While we’re here, why not let’s have a look at the referendum on EU membership, which Cameron promised us if he remained Prime Minister. You can have 6/4 on us voting to leave, but all the polls so far have suggested we’ll vote to remain. And we all know how accurate the polls are.[poll id=”4″]