Free Tips For Vertem Futurity Trophy Raceday 2019
Published on 24/10/19
Doncaster Racecourse stages its 2019 Vertem Futurity Raceday on Saturday (October 26), with the feature being the Group 1 Vertem Futurity Racing Trophy, a race that was for many years known as the Racing Post Trophy. The card also kicks-off with another interesting 2-year-old race in the shape of the Doncaster Stakes.
Check Out our trends, analysis, and free tips for the Vertem Futurity Trophy Raceday.
Doncaster Stakes Stakes 2019 Analysis
13:45 at Doncaster on 26th October
This Listed Race for 2-year-olds is run over 6 furlongs and 2 yards and it has produced a couple of double-priced winners in the last decade at 11/1 and 20/1. But the other eight winners were returned at no bigger than 6/1.
The experience of the winners had varied greatly, having had between one and six runs, but nine of the last 10 winners arrived here having won their previous race. If that trend is to bear fruit this year, the early favourite Troubador won’t be winning, and it also rules out Bill Neigh, Milltown Star, and Flaming Princess.
Aidan O’Brien’s Hong Kong only won a Naas maiden last time and, as he has plenty to find on official ratings, it could be that O’Brien is simply giving son Donnacha a chance to ride the track before the afternoon’s big race. Brad The Thief also has plenty of improvement to find having only won a novice race on the all-weather at Wolverhampton last time.
The 102-rated Aberama Gold is harder to rule out, but he was well-beaten by Troubador earlier in the season.
Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes 2019 Analysis
15:25 at Doncaster on 26th October
This Group 1 race run over one mile is restricted to 2-year-olds and is often won by horses that go onto contend the following year’s Classics.
Recent winners such as Camelot, Saxon Warrior, and Magna Grecia have all won the following year’s 2,000 Guineas and their trainer Aidan O’Brien has won five of the last 10 editions of the race.
Amazingly, Aidan O’Brien saddles five of the six possible runners this year, with the only trainer brave enough to take him on being Andrew Balding, who saddled the 2014 winner Elm Park.
Apart from the shock 33/1 winner Marcel in 2015, winners in the last decade have been returned between 10/11 and 7/2. All of the last 10 winners had run no more than four times, with eight of them winning their previous start.
Royal County Down and Iberia both represent Aidan O’Brien but are more experienced than the last 10 winners, so it will be a surprise if either can find the improvement their ratings suggest they need to. Louisiana is the third of the O’Brien quintet but his only victory so far came in a handicap last time off a mark of 91. Jockey bookings also suggest he’s the third string, but Paddy Beggy does have a habit of winning Group 1’s on big-priced O’Brien horses.
Innisfree is less easy to dismiss, as he’s rated just 1lb below the top two horses, but he only won a Group 2 last time by a neck from the same horse he had also beaten a neck when winning his maiden on his second run.
The form of the runner-up there Shekhem suggests Mogul is by far the best of the Aidan O’Brien quintet, as he had earlier beaten Shekhem by 3½ lengths in a maiden before also going on to win a Group 2. The trouble is the bookies have also taken the same strong opinion and Mogul is a bet-priced 1/2 in the early markets.