Ladbrokes Trophy Chase 2019 Analysis
15:00 at Newbury on 29th November
Class has prevailed in the last 10 editions of the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase, a race that was formerly known as the Hennessy and is run over 3 miles 1 furlong and 214 yards. The last 10 winners have all been rated at least 146 and, if that statistic continues this year, Some Chaos, Joe Farrell, Regal Encore, Shantou Village, Walt, The Conditional, Commodore, and Benny’s King won’t be good enough.
A growing trend in the race is that six of the last seven winners of the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase have had the benefit of a prep race between 14 and 55 days earlier. That gives us the opportunity to remove Beware The Bear, Brave Eagle, Yala Enki, Robinsfirth, Borice, and OK Corral but, admittedly, OK Corral is prominent in the market and has gone well fresh in the past.
Willie Mullins trained his first winner of this race in 2017 with Total Recall, who improved around 20lb for his first run for Ireland’s Champion Trainer. This year Mullins saddles Cabaret Queen who sluiced up on his first start.
However, she carried just 9-12 in a much lower-class race and it will be a serious feather in Mullins’ cap if he can improve an ex-Dan Skelton horse by as much as the handicapper suggests he has. Mullins also has the once high-class Yorkhill in the race, but he was beaten in his last handicap.
There are also quite a few other horses that are above their last winning marks in a better class race, including De Rasher County, Le Musee, Two Taffs, and Daklondike.
Three of the remaining contenders contested the 2018 edition, with Elegant Escape finishing second, Dingo Dollar third, and West Approach fifth. Dingo Dollar comes out best at the weights this year but may need a first-time visor to help him be a stronger stayer.
Elegant Escape carried top-weight last year and looks sure to go well again after running second over a shorter trip on his seasonal debut. Ideally, he probably wants an even longer trip, but this strong stayer is fancied to at least hit the frame once more in what isn’t a vintage renewal.
West Approach is another interesting runner for trainer Colin Tizzard, as Robbie Power seems to have worked out that he’s best ridden asleep out the back before being produced with a late run. But those are tough tactics to carry out in this race and he has plenty of ground to make up on last year’s form. Tizzard also saddles the well-backed Mister Malarkey, who is only a 6-year-old and is potentially well-handicapped on his fourth in what looked a decent renewal of the RSA Chase, but you do have to forgive him a disappointing seasonal debut.