Free Tips For The Ladbrokes Winter Carnival 2019 Day 1
Published on 28/11/19
Newbury stages day one of its Ladbrokes Winter Carnival on Friday 29 November and the highlights are the Ladbrokes ‘Where The Nation Plays’ Novices’ Chase and the Long Distance Hurdle.
Check out our trends, analysis, and free tips for Newbury.
Ladbrokes 'Where The Nation Plays' Novices' Chase 2019 Analysis
14:25 at Newbury on 29th November
Paul Nicholls has trained two of the last six winners of this Grade 2 Chase but this year he saddles the lowest-rated runner Mont Des Avaloirs. The 6-year-old didn’t take instantly to chasing last season but, after reverting to hurdles after that, he could have benefitted from another summer to strengthen-up. However, he was pulled up on his only previous start at this trip, whilst he was only third off a mark of 139 on his one run at Newbury over hurdles.
Deyrann De Carjac was only rated in the high 120s over hurdles but he landed a gamble on his chasing debut at Cartmel and gave 5lb and a beating to subsequent winner Pym last time. Alan King’s horse has something to find on ratings but may still have some improvement to come.
Dashel Dancer was rated 140+ over hurdles and he seemed to take that level of form to his chasing career when second to the re-opposing Champ here last time. However, it’s hard to find an obvious reason why he should reverse the form.
Vision Des Flos was rated in the 150s over hurdles and was good enough to beat last week’s Coral Hurdle winner If The Cap Fits in receipt of 4lb over the smaller obstacles. Trainer Colin Tizzard is in top form, but man of the moment Robbie Power has only placed twice from six starts on the horse, whilst Vision Des Flos unseated his rider on his one previous try over fences.
Black Op was another horse that reverted to hurdles last year after struggling over fences, but he looked a better prospect when winning at Stratford over fences on this season’s seasonal debut. But that contest may not have taken much winning and the Newbury fences will test his jumping.
Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle 2019 Analysis
15:00 at Newbury on 29th November
The beauty of the National Hunt game is the three horses that have won the last four editions of this contest are all back to try their luck this year.
Thistlecrack won the 2015 renewal and he went on to win the King George Chase in 2016. That was his last win and, despite running some excellent races in defeat since, it’s asking a lot of him to become the first 11-year-old to win the race in its 30-year history, even if he does get 6lb from three of his rivals.
Unowwhatimeanharry is also an 11-year-old, but he did become the first 10-year-old to win the race last year, whilst he also won the race in 2016, and was second in 2017. He didn’t have a penalty to carry last year, so 6lb and an extra year older are two reasons why he may struggle.
The World’s End is still young enough at 8 to be improving, but he was getting 6lb from Unowhatomeanharry when beating the old boy on their seasonal debut at Wetherby. His stable was also in red-hot form that week but hasn’t been as hot recently.
Beer Goggles was a well-punted winner of this race in 2017, but it will be a remarkable training performance if he emerges triumphant after 671 days off the track. But he is two from two over the course and distance and, just like in 2017, he gets weight from most of his rivals.