Saturday’s Greenham Stakes at Newbury (April 13) will be the first recognised 2,000 Guineas trial run in the UK this season. Watership Down Stud are the sponsors of this famous Group contest which dates back to 193. It has been won by many famous horses including Mill Reef whilst, more recently, the Khalid Abdullah owned pair Frankel and Kingman used it as a stepping stone to the first classic of the season.
Check out our trends, runner-by-runner guide, and free tips for the Greenham Stakes 2019.
Greenham Stakes Trends
Favourites have a good record in the Greenham Stakes with five of the last 10 being successful, three of which were returned at odds-on. However, after the late defection of the 2,000 Guineas ante-post favourite Too Darn Hot, predicting which horse will start favourite in this year’s field isn’t easy. Whilst favourites do have a good record, one winner in the last decade was returned at 16/1.
A more reliable statistic could be that eight of the last 10 winners were rated 110. It’s also interesting that the Richard Hannon stable (Senior and Junior) has produced three winners in the last nine years.
Greenham Stakes 2019 Runner-By-Runner Guide
Started favourite or second favourite on each of his first three starts as a two-year-old, winning on his third run. However, he then finished over six lengths behind the re-opposing Mohaather, suggesting this 93-rated colt he will have had to blossom over the winter to win.
Won his first three starts last season, with the highlight being a win in a Listed Race. However, this 107-rated colt was a major disappointment on his final start when fourth in a French Group 1. One plus point is that he’s trained by Richard Hannon Jnr, and connections will also be pleased that Too Darn Hot isn’t running.
Rated 110 after winning three of his five starts last season. Beaten only 1¼ lengths in the Vertem Futurity Stakes on his last start, but probably more exposed than the market leaders. May also improve when stepped up in trip.
Rated 97 after winning two of his first three starts, but the handicapper dropped him 1lb after he flopped on his final start in a big sales race. Has plenty to find with the market leaders and looks the Hannon stable’s third-string.
This Kevin Ryan-trained 114-rated inmate is now officially the highest-rated horse in the field in the absence of Too Darn Hot, and he earned that rating by winning a French Group 2 Race on his final start last season. There’s a slight worry that all his runs have been over shorter, but his sire Kodiac often produces three-year-olds that run well over seven-furlongs, whilst top-sprinters Tasleet and Muhaarar were good enough to win this before dropping back in trip.
One of only two unbeaten horses in the line-up, with his sole win run coming over six furlongs at York. The style of that win and his breeding suggest he’ll improve for the step up in trip and the horse that finished second to him got closer to Mohaather on his next start.
Came with a late rattle to just get up on his second start over six furlongs last season and took a massive step forward over today’s course distance to win a Group 3 to earn a rating of 108. His odds of 33/1 suggest that was something of a shock but, though the form hasn’t been boosted since, his turn of foot means he has potential.
Won his final two of three starts over six furlongs to earn a rating of 98. Breeding suggests he could be better over sprint trips and he has to prove himself on turf having only run on the all-weather so far.
Won over seven furlongs on his second start at odds of 20/1, but this 89-rated horse was 50/1 when beaten in a Listed Race on his next start.
A third arrow for the Hannon Stable and this one is the only unbeaten runner of that trio. Not run for 305 days but, though is only rated 96, he could rate higher as he did give 8lb and a convincing beating to a horse that’s now rated 91.
Greenham Stakes 2019 Verdict
It’s always hard to gauge how horses will improve from two to three and there are some nice types entered here. The Hannon stable do well but, though De Boitron and Urban Icon could go well, the fact Hannon runs three suggests none of them may be world-beaters. Magic J, Mohaather, and Great Scott are also respected.
However, Hello Youmzain sets a fair standard on form and could be well-suited to seven furlongs this season having won a Group 2 last year. A rating of 114 entitles him to be favourite and trainer Kevin Ryan has enjoyed some winners this week.