The weights for the 2019 Grand National were released on Tuesday, and we’re taking a look at some of the major trends for the Grand National over the last 10 years to see if we can pinpoint some likely winners. We’ve looked at age, ratings, weight, trainers, jockeys, and owners. We’ve also considered the number of runs, Aintree experience, and prep runs to produce our free tips for the 2019 Grand National.
Grand National 10-Year-Trends
The 10 winners of the Grand National between 2009 to 2018 were aged between eight and 11, with three being aged eight, two being aged nine, two aged 10, and three aged 11.
Winners of the Grand National in the last decade have been rated between 137 and 160, with six winners rated between 148 and 153. The last three winners have been rated 148, 148, and 150.
Grand National winners in the last 10 years have carried between 10-3 and 11-9, with seven of the 10 winners carrying 11-0 or less.
Trainers, Jockeys, and Owners
No trainer has trained more than one Grand National winner in the last decade, but eight of the 10 winners were trained in England and two in Ireland. Leighton Aspell is the only jockey to have ridden two winners.
Owners to bear in mind include Trevor Hemmings who owned both the 2011 winner Ballabriggs and 2015 winner Many Clouds, while Gigginstown Stud-owned both the 2016 winner Rule The World and the 2018 winner Tiger Roll.
Number Of Runs
Recent Grand National winners have all been vastly experienced horses that have had between 19 and 42 career starts be those in point-to-points, bumpers, hurdles, or chases. However, the last 10 Grand National winners had run at least 10 times over fences and up to 25 times. They’d also had between three and six seasonal runs in the season they won the Grand National.
Nine of the last 10 winners of the Grand National had run at Aintree before, with 2016 winner Rule The World the only exception. But those experiences of Aintree may not be what you’d expect. 2009 winner Mon Mome and 2014 winner Pineau De Re had both failed to hit the frame in a previous Grand National, whilst Ballabriggs, Neptune Collonges, Auroras Encore, One For Arthur, and Tiger Roll had all failed to win hurdle races at Aintree. Even Many Clouds had failed to win here in four races over hurdles and fences, but Don’t Push It had won over fences on the Mildmay course the previous season.
The eight winners between 2009 and 2016 had all failed to win their prep races before running in the Grand National, and those prep races came in a variety of races. Don’t Push It and Pineau De Re ran in the Pertemps Hurdle Final at the Cheltenham Festival, while Many Clouds ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
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Ballabriggs and Auroras Encore ran in the Premier Chase at Kelso, while Mon Mome ran in the Midlands National, and Neptune Collonges in Haydock’s Grand National Trial. Rule The World, who hadn’t won a chase prior to winning the Grand National, ran in a 2 mile and 4 furlongs novice chase at Naas.
However, the last two Grand National winners have both won their prep races, with One For Arthur winning the 2017 Classic Chase at Warwick and Tiger Roll winning the Cross Country race at the Cheltenham Festival.
2019 Grand National Eyecatchers
The handicapper has shown some leniency to dual Betfair Chase winner Bristol De Mai, as can run off a mark of 168 instead of his official mark of 173. However, he still has a tough ask considering the highest-mark of any winner in the last decade was 160. Four other horses also above a mark of 160 are Anibale Fly, Alpha Des Obeaux, Elegant Escape, and The Storyteller.
This has the potential to be a real high-quality Grand National, as 2018 Irish Gold Cup winner Edwulf gets in on 159, the same mark as last year’s Grand National winner Tiger Roll, who is officially 11lb higher this year, though may be burdened with just 2lb more weight if Bristol De Mai lines up.
Gigginstown Stud also has the former grade one winning chasers Outlander and Don Poli on handy looking marks of 158 and 157, especially the 10-year-old Don Poli who has always suggested that he could be suited by this sort of stamina test and has won here over the Mildmay fences.
Another grade one winning chaser who could enjoy this test is Black Corton, who is normally an excellent jumper and carrying just 10-11 in a handicap could really suit him. His usual jockey Bryony Frost also finished fifth aboard Milansbar last year.
The horse that really stands out at the weights though is Minella Rocca. He’s not the most consistent sort but the two best runs of his career came when beating Native River in the four-miler at the Cheltenham Festival and when second in a Cheltenham Gold Cup. This has probably been a long-term plan formulated by his shrewd trainer Jonjo O’Neill and he looks thrown-in on his best form on a weight of 10-11, especially considering he was given top-weight last year when the weights were announced before he was declared a non-runner.
Plenty of other horses also deserve a mention including 2017 winner One For Arthur, 2018 National Hunt Chase winner Rathvinden, 2018 JLT Chase winner Shattered Love, and 2017 Ladbrokes Trophy winner Total Recall – just to highlight what a classy field this could be.
Finally, the handicapper has also given a real chance to The Last Samuri by dropping him to a mark of 150, just 1lb higher than when second in the 2016 renewal. He’s currently number 41 in the list but only needs one horse above him to drop out to get a run.
Free Ante-Post Tips For The 2019 Grand National
Minella Rocco (Each-Way) @ 41.00 William Hill, 34.00 Widely Available
Don Poli (Each-Way) @ 67.00 Bet365, William Hill, Unibet
Black Corton (Each-Way) @ 51.00 Bet365, Betvictor, Unibet, Coral, Betfred, Betway
The Last Samuri (Each-Way) @ 51.00 Bet365, Ladbrokes, Betfair, Betvictor, PaddyPower