Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes 2019 Analysis
18:00 at Newcastle on 1st November
This Group 1 is a much more interesting contest now it’s got 12 runners in it and it will be interesting to see what happens over the straight mile at Newcastle rather than the straight mile at Doncaster.
Aidan O’Brien has won 50% of the last 10 editions, and he was set to have five of the six runners at Doncaster. He still has five runners but there are plenty more horses now taking on the Coolmore Stud-owned horses on.
Mogul remains the favourite, but he’s drifted out from around 4/7 to 13/8 on the back of the new opposition, whilst the artificial surface isn’t guaranteed to suit the son of Galileo as well as turf. None of the others Aidan O’Brien runners are typically bred for all-weather racing, so it could pay to look elsewhere in the hunt for a bit of value.
There are also two more Irish raiders. But Geometrical has made little impact in Group races so far, whilst King Of The Throne ran behind Mogul on debut and ran even worse next time.
The money this week has been for Kinross, a once raced son of Kingman who on debut by eight lengths in eye catching fashion. He was set to run at Newbury last week, so he can be expected to be fit and ready for this assignment, whilst the likes of Camelot and Kingsbarns have won this race on their second run. But he’s another horse that has more of a turf pedigree.
William Haggas is another trainer having a go, but his Tammani only won a Listed Race in heavy ground in France last time. He was beaten in a Group 3 before that success and it will be disappointing if he’s good enough to win this Group 1.
It’s really interesting that John Gosden has entered two horses now the race has been moved to the all-weather and his Cherokee Trail can be forgiven for getting stuck in the mud last time. However, this dual 7-furlong winner has something to prove.
But a move for Gosden’s once-raced Verboten would be interesting. He’s by top American horse No Nay Never and could relish the all-weather surface. He also impressed on debut when, despite being weak in the market, he knuckled down late on to get up over 7-furlongs on Yarmouth’s straight course.