Bombardier British Hopped Amber Beer Handicap 2020 Analysis
15:10 at Newcastle on 19th February
This is just the third running of this class 2 handicap over 7 furlongs and 14 yards, but the two winners so far have had similar profiles. They have been aged four and five, rated 100 and 101, had run 40 and 46 days earlier, and were drawn in stalls three and five, whilst both carried 9-10 to victory.
No horse is a perfect fit for the statistics, but there are plenty of angles to consider in what is a classiest edition of this race so far.
The 4-year-old Aljari caught the eye when second over course and distance last time and he could be nicely positioned in stall-4 if breaking on terms. Trainer Marco Botti tries reaches for the first-time blinkers to help his horse concentrate, but a mark of 89 suggests he’s short on class compared to the previous two winners.
The others that looks short on class are Young Fire, Rathbone, Sanaadh, Hart Stopper, Baronial Pride, Athollblair Boy, and Papa Stour, as they’re rated between 83 and 92.
Kasbaan has been running consistently well in decent races of late but his last win came off a 10lb lower mark and there looks to better handicapped horses in the line-up. One of those is Oh This Is Us, who is on a mark of 106, 7lb than lower than at his peak. That’s reduced by a further 5lb by the booking of his useful 5lb claimer, but he’s 0 from 4 on tapeta.
The last two winners also return at the age of 6, and both are handicapped to run well again. Straight Right is 2lb lower than when winning in 2018 and 9lb lower than when second in the race last year, but he was well beaten by Aljari when last seen. Last year’s winner Keyser Soze returns off a 2lb higher mark than last year but he’s another with a 5lb claimer on board for the first time and he looks to have had this race as a big target for a long time.
Glen Shiel was also a winner over course and distance last time, for which he was bumped up 4lb by the handicapper. However, he’s only returned to a mark he’s been competitive off before.