Newbury Racecourse stages it’s Dubai Duty Free Int’l Saturday meeting on the 21 September and the highlight is the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes. Other important races on the card include the Group World Trophy Stakes and the Group 3 Legacy Cup Stakes.
Check out our stats, analysis, and free tips for Newbury.
World Trophy Stakes 2019 Analysis
13:45 at Newbury on 21st Sept
cond. It would be no surprise if Shine So Bright landed favouritism, but Turjoman still has the potential to make up into a serious horse. He’s a three-time winner at this distance and, having just been collared by subsequent Group 2 winner Duke Of Hazard over a mile last time, this long-striding sort is taken to relish the return to seven furlongs at this galloping track.
The World Trophy Stakes is a Group 3 for horses aged three and older and it is run over 5 furlongs and 34 yards.
Nine of the last 10 winners had run in the last 21 days. No winner in the last decade has come from stalls one or two, whilst only one winner carried any kind of penalty. Six winners had won their previous race and the last 10 winners were returned at 8/1 or less.
This doesn’t look the strongest renewal of the World Trophy Stakes, but the three recent winners Judicial, Equilateral, and Dakota Gold are all decent fits for the stats.
The improving Dakota Gold has won his last four but, on a line through Danzeno, he has nothing in hand of Judicial. There is also little between Judicial and Equilateral on a form-line involving Queen’s Gift, who both beat into second when winning their last race. Equilateral finished in front of Judicial when the pair were fourth and fifth in last year’s renewal of this race, but Judicial is 4lb better off this time.
Legacy Cup Stakes 2019 Analysis
14:20 at Newbury on 21st Sept
The Legacy Cup Stakes is a Group 3 for horses aged three and older and is run over 1 mile and 3 furlongs.
Winners tend to be well-found in the market, with the last 10 winners returned at 13/2 or less. Other interesting statistics are David Simcock has trained three of the last four winners, whilst Jim Crowley has ridden two of the last three. Simcock and Crowley teamed-up to win the 2016 renewal but go head to head this time.
It’s hard to fancy Pivoine or Wadilsafa in this class, whilst Pondus is probably better on softer ground. Jim Crowley’s mount Wadilsafa has yet to prove himself in this class and he has looked best at a mile so far.
Mill Reef Stakes 2019 Analysis
14:55 at Newbury on 21st Sept
The Mill Reef Stakes is a Grou2 Race for 2-year-olds run over 6-furlongs. Fancied runners have dominated in the last decade, with the biggest-priced winner in that period being just 4/1.
Clive Cox and Marco Botti are the only trainers that have a runner this year that have won the race in the last decade, whilst dual Mill Reef Stakes winner Adam Kirby is the only jockey to have won the race in the last decade with a ride.
Kirby teams up with Cox this year with Firepower, but he failed to show any of that when well-beaten at Royal Ascot. Shadn, Royal Commando, and Malotru also got beaten last time. Mr Kiki and Impressor also need to find more after breaking their ducks in class 4 events on their last starts.
The obvious one is Mystery Power, who has earned a rating of 111, and can be forgiven finishing sixth last time at Goodwood. He neither liked Goodwood or stayed seven furlongs, and will take some beating dropped back to six furlongs.