This Thursday is the third day of the Melbourne Cup Carnival. It’s traditionally Ladies Day, with the running of the Group 1 Kennedy Oaks for three-year-old fillies being the feature event on the nine race card.
11110 1. AMPHITRITE (5), J: CRAIG WILLIAMS, W: 55.5 KGS, 3.20
37921 2. ARISTIA (4), J: DAMIAN LANE, W: 55.5 KGS, 4.60
85042 3. QAFILA (10), J: JIM CROWLEY, W: 55.5 KGS, 8.50
11315 4. VERRY ELLEEGANT (13), J: JOHN ALLEN, W: 55.5 KGS, 5.00
62317 5. GREYSFUL GLAMOUR (1), J: TIM CLARK, W: 55.5 KGS, 16.00
51434 6. SIZZLEME (14), J: LUKE CURRIE, W: 55.5 KGS, 26.00
22186 7. DARK CONFIDANT (15), J: REGAN BAYLISS, W: 55.5 KGS, 34.00
29251 8. MISS MOANA (9), J: MARK ZAHRA, W: 55.5 KGS, 26.00
8511 9. MARACAIBO (8), J: STEPHEN BASTER, W: 55.5 KGS, 34.00
4221 10. SCAMPER (12), J: KERRIN MCEVOY, W: 55.5 KGS, 34.00
82521 11. ZAPURLER (3), J: HUGH BOWMAN, W: 55.5 KGS, 10.00
2224 12. COLLECTABLE (11), J: JAMES MCDONALD, W: 55.5 KGS, 18.00
36540 13. EXCLUSIVELY OURS (6), J: BEN THOMPSON, W: 55.5 KGS, 201.00
09031 14. MINER’S MISS (2), J: MS MICHELLE PAYNE, W: 55.5 KGS, 51.00
05733 15. LESEDI (7), J: NOEL CALLOW, W: 55.5 KGS, 201.00
Form and Predictions
It’s a staying race for the three-year-old fillies, and while none of them have raced over 2500m before, it give many punters an idea as to who could be the next staying mare next season. All the fillies carry the same weight, and those that racked up the most prize money rank from top to bottom.
At the top of the pile is Group 1 winning Amphitrite, who is one of three Darren Weir runners in the race. The winner of the Group 3 Edward Manifold Stakes, followed a week later by a slashing win the Group 1 Thousand Guineas, she probably is the stand out galloper assembled here. She jumps up from the 1600m Empire Rose Stakes where she took on the older mares and did not acquit herself well. The only concern is the short turnaround, an additional 900m journey, and a question mark over her ability to handle 2500m.
Aristia won the Oaks prelude last Saturday in the Wakeful Stakes, and held on strongly to claim the win. The Wakeful is always a good guide, so she must be respected on that run.
British jockey Jim Crowley picks up the ride on Qafila. This filly has been knocking on the door but not enough to barge the front door down. A good second placing in the Wakeful behind Aristia has her in the crosshairs of many punters looking for value.
Darren Weir’s second runner is Verry Elleegant who was the beaten favourite in the Wakeful. She is not a kind filly mid-race, and tends to over race which causes her problems. If she can get into a rhythm and is close at the top of the straight, she could be a definite contender.
Sydney filly Greysful Glamour had some good form but undid it all when she finished unplaced in the Ethereal Stakes behind Verry Elegant on Caulfield Cup Day. Has some talent obviously, and might be worth the small investment with a $16.00 starting price being very healthy odds.
Sizzleme is likely to be the race leader, after an encouraging performance in the Wakeful on Saturday. Whether she has the class to hang in there remains to be seen.
Of the others, Scamper and Maracaibo have solid form including last start wins in lower level races. The same could be said for Collectable and Zapurler, the third Weir runner with Hugh Bowman onboard; his last ride for the best part of a month after copping a huge suspension in the Melbourne Cup.
Betting Gods Tips
Verry Elleegant – 1pt win @ 5.00 PaddyPower, Bet365
Aristia – 1pt win @ 4.80 Bet365
Amphitrite – 1.5pt win @ 3.30 PaddyPower
Video Reference Guide
2018 Thousand Guineas (13 October 2018, Amphitrite, Qafila),
Odds Correct at Time of Publication