Free Tips For Cheltenham Races [16th November]
Published on 15/11/19
Saturday is day two of Cheltenham’s November Meeting, and the ground should be riding soft-to-heavy after day one had to be abandoned due to waterlogging. The highlight on the card is the BetVictor Gold Cup, whilst supporting races include the Ballymore Novice’s Hurdle and the BetVictor Smartcards Handicap Chase.
Check out our trends, analysis, and free tips for day two of Cheltenham’s November Meeting.
Ballymore Novice’s Hurdle 2019 Analysis
12:05 at Cheltenham on 16th November
5-year-olds have won seven of the last 10 editions of this Grade 2 Novices’ Hurdle, whilst six of the last eight winners carried a penalty to victory. That suggests Thyme Hill is a nice stats-fit as well as bringing the best form to the table.
He finished best of the English horses in the Cheltenham Festival bumper back in March and that race already looks like it could be one of the best recent renewals after the winner Envoi Allen hacked up on his hurdling debut in Ireland. Runner-up Blue Sari is also expected to frank the form on his hurdling debut at Punchestown later in the day.
Free Tips for Ballymore Novice’s Hurdle 2019
Thyme Hill was backed from 7/1 into 9/4 when winning a Grade 2 on his hurdling debut in September and he’s expected to prove the real deal for trainer Phillip Hobbs and jockey Richard Johnson, who combined to win the 2011 edition with Fingal Bay.
BetVictor Smartcards Handicap Chase 2019 Analysis
13:50 at Cheltenham on 16th November
7-year-olds have won five of the last eight editions of this Grade 3 Chase, with the last five winners rated between 144 and 152. Surprisingly, none of this year’s seven runners fall into that ratings band, but West Approach is rated just 2lb lower on a mark of 142. That’s just 2lb higher than when runner-up at the October Meeting over two furlongs shorter. However, after travelling well, he faded late on that day and a longer trip on even softer ground could test his stamina.
The five horses below West Approach in the handicap could appreciate carrying lightweights but they are stepping up in class. Pop Rockstar is the most interesting, as he’s an improving 7-year-old from a stable that often targets this meeting.
Free Tips for BetVictor Smartcards Handicap Chase 2019
The vote goes to 7-year-old Ramses De Teille, whose stable also like having winners on this big day. He brings a big helping of class to the race off a mark of 153, and Sam Spinner won this off topweight in 2014. He’s also proven on soft ground and stays further having been runner-up in last year’s Welsh National. He also impressed when warming up for this race with a win over hurdles off just a 7lb lower mark three weeks ago.
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BetVictor Gold Cup 2019 Analysis
14:25 at Cheltenham on 16th November
The BetVictor Gold Cup Handicap Chase offers a first prize of over £90,000 and most of the runners will have had this race as their target for a while. There are no overly strong statistics, with the last 10 winners being aged 5 to 9, rated between 134 and 159, and having carried between 10-2 and 11-11. Six previous winners had enjoyed a prep run whilst four were making their seasonal debut, so it’s a case of trying to find the best fit for the race.
Paul Nicholls has trained two of the last seven winners and his Magic Saint could go well after a wind-op as he’s the youngest horse in the field at the age of five. But it’s worrying that he ran his worst race of last season on soft ground. Another trainer that has a great record in this race is Nigel Twiston-Davies and he saddles two runners. Splash Of Ginge is probably too old at 11 to repeat his win from two years ago, but Count Meribel could go close as he beat a Cheltenham Festival winner in a novice chase over course and distance last year. He ran as well as could be expected behind Lostintranslation on his seasonal debut and his figures in November read 2/1/1/1/2.
But last year’s Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase may hold the key. Siruh Du Lac beat Janika into second that day and the runner-up has come out this year and won the Haldon Gold Cup off a mark of 162.
Free Tips for BetVictor Gold Cup 2019
Siruh Du Luc is taken to defy the 9lb rise for that Cheltenham Festival win, especially as he is one of the best jumpers of a fence in training. If he can get to the lead early, he could simply put too much pressure on the jumping of the horses behind.