The 2019 Ayr Gold Cup meeting is the most lucrative day of flat racing in Scotland with £420,000 of prize money up for grabs. The feature is the Ayr Gold Cup and the main event is supported by the Group 3 Firth Of Clyde Stakes.
Check out our stats, analysis, and free tips for the 2019 Ayr Gold Cup Day.
Firth Of Clyde Stakes 2019 Analysis
15:15 at Ayr on 21st September
The Firth Of Clyde Stakes is a Group 3 race over 6 furlongs that is restricted to 2-year-old fillies. 10 runners are set to go to post and it could be worth noting that the winner has come from a mid-to-high draw in each of the last seven renewals.
Another strong statistic is the last nine winners have all run in the last 39 days, with seven running between 15 and 26 days earlier.
The number of runs has been less significant, with winners having had between one and six runs prior to winning. Winners have been returned at 7/2, 9/2, and 11/2, but six of the last nine winners have been returned at odds of between 11/1 and 33/1. Paul Mulrennan is the race specialist jockey with two wins in the last six years.
It’s easy to see why the bookies have made Orlaith the favourite in the early markets. Ian Jardine’s filly took a while to get going but has won two of her last three under Paul Mulrennan who is booked to ride her here. Her latest win in a Listed Race has been boosted by the second who won a Group 3 in France next time out. But, after six runs, it’s possible that one or two of the less-experienced horses could improve past, whilst her berth in stall-four probably isn’t ideal.
The second-highest rated horse Lambeth Walk looks to have an even worse draw in stall-one, and she has something to prove after being beaten in Group company and Listed company on her last three starts.
The third-highest rated horse Rose Of Kildare has a better draw in stall-nine, but she’s been running in handicaps and failed to win when running in Listed company a few starts back.
That’s why a chance is given to the once-raced Aleneva, who won what turned out to be a useful race at Haydock on debut, when enterprisingly ridden by booked jockey P J McDonald. Her absence of 107 days has to be a concern, but the runner-up from that race won her next three starts. She’s also drawn in stall-8, which should suit her front-running style.
Ayr Gold Cup 2019 Analysis
15:50 at Ayr on 21st September
The Ayr Gold Cup is a class 3 Heritage Handicap run over 6 furlongs. It awards a first prize of £124, 500 to the winner and is normally a race that trainers formulate a long-term plot for.
The last 10 winners have been aged between three and six and were drawn no lower than stall-four and no higher than stall-19. The last 10 winners have all carried between 9-0 and 9-10 and the last four winners were rated between 101 and 110. All 10 winners had a prep run between 6 and 35 days earlier.
Three of the last five winners were well found in the market at 5/1, 11/2, and 13/2, but the other seven winners in the last decade were all returned between 10/1 and 20/1. Trainers who have targeted the race with great effect include Kevin Ryan who has trained three of the last eight winners and Andrew Balding who has trained two of the last six winners.
No horse in this year’s line-up is a perfect fit for all the statistics, but the Kevin Ryan-trained pair Major Jumbo and Hey Jonesy are respected. Major Jumbo is only just drawn wider than ideal in stall-20, whilst Hey Jonesy is fitted with a first-time visor and could go well if a break of 56 days isn’t too long.
Another horse that has been absent for longer than ideal is Laugh A Minute, and he also must have an outstanding chance if first-time blinkers rekindle the enthusiasm of a horse that is 6lb lower than at his peak.
But a chance is taken on the Intisaab. There’s a chance age has caught up with the 8-year-old but the first-time booking of 7lb claimer Angus Villers, who won on his last ride for David O’Meara, means this dual course and distance winner is 17lb lower than at the start of the season.