Free Tips For Ascot [Saturday 5 October]
The second day of the Autumn Racing Weekend & Ascot Beer Festival takes place on Saturday 5 October. The action Kicks-off with Rous Stakes at 2.00pm, whilst the two Group 3 highlights on the card are the Cumberland Lodge Stakes and the Bengough Stakes.
Check out our stats, analysis, and free tips for Autumn Racing Weekend and Ascot Beer Festival day two.
Rous Stakes 2019 Analysis
14:00 at Ascot on 5th October
The Rous Stakes is a Listed race run over 5 furlongs. The 2019 Rous Stakes is set to take place on soft ground and it’s notable the last three winners of editions run under similar underfoot conditions have been drawn high. They were also won by horses aged four, five, and six, perhaps suggesting 3-year-olds struggle to cope with the testing conditions as well as their elders. None of the last 10 winners have carried a penalty.
Nine of the last 10 winners had run in the preceding 20 days. Nine of the last 10 winners have been returned between 9/2 and 11/1 but the other was a 33/1 shocker.
The in-form Dakota Gold sets a decent standard, having just failed in his bid to notch-up a five-timer last time, but he does have to carry a 3lb penalty. That means dual course and distance winner Tis Marvellous comes out best at the weights, but he’s not guaranteed to produce his best on soft ground. That comment also applies to Danzeno. Stake Acclaim could go close as he relishes soft ground, but he has a tough-looking draw in stall-4.
Cumberland Lodge Stakes 2019 Analysis
14:35 at Ascot on 5th October
The Cumberland Lodge Stakes is a Group 3 run over 1 mile 3 furlongs and 211 yards. The last 10 winners were all aged three or four and only one of those carried a penalty to success. Six winners in the last decade had won their previous start, with none finishing worse than sixth.
Recent winners have been well-found in the market with nine of them returned at 11/2 or less, with the other one only being 8/1.
A tricky race to weight up, as the four 3-year-olds and two 4-year-olds have yet to prove themselves on ground as soft as it is forecast to be. The second-favourite Faylaq is also taking a massive step-up in class after winning on the all-weather last time. Raakib Alhawa, Surrey Thunder, and Vivid Diamond also have a bit to find with the top-rated horse, whilst Wells Fargo has been beaten a long way in good company on his last two starts.
Bengough Stakes 2019 Analysis
15:40 at Ascot on 5th October
This Group 3 race is run over 6 furlongs. It has been run four times on soft ground in the last four years and three winners have come from a high draw and one form a middle draw. Only one winner in the last decade has carried a penalty but that was the brilliant Blue Point. There have been winners returned at 11/1 and 16/1 in the last decade, but the last three have been returned at evens, 7/4, and 2/1.
Five horses in this year’s field are rated over 100 and it will be a surprise if the others prove good enough to bridge the gap. Old-favourite Donjuan Triumphant will love the conditions and could go well, but Raccous has recently returned to form on faster ground. Meanwhile, Keystroke is penalised. The early favourite Tabdeed is also an unknown factor on soft ground and is taking a big step-up in class.