Free Tips For Ascot [Saturday 5 October]

Free Tips For Ascot [Saturday 5 October]

October 4, 2019

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The second day of the Autumn Racing Weekend & Ascot Beer Festival takes place on Saturday 5 October. The action Kicks-off with Rous Stakes at 2.00pm, whilst the two Group 3 highlights on the card are the Cumberland Lodge Stakes and the Bengough Stakes.

Check out our stats, analysis, and free tips for Autumn Racing Weekend and Ascot Beer Festival day two.

Rous Stakes 2019 Analysis

14:00 at Ascot on 5th October

The Rous Stakes is a Listed race run over 5 furlongs. The 2019 Rous Stakes is set to take place on soft ground and it’s notable the last three winners of editions run under similar underfoot conditions have been drawn high. They were also won by horses aged four, five, and six, perhaps suggesting 3-year-olds struggle to cope with the testing conditions as well as their elders. None of the last 10 winners have carried a penalty.

Nine of the last 10 winners had run in the preceding 20 days. Nine of the last 10 winners have been returned between 9/2 and 11/1 but the other was a 33/1 shocker.

The in-form Dakota Gold sets a decent standard, having just failed in his bid to notch-up a five-timer last time, but he does have to carry a 3lb penalty. That means dual course and distance winner Tis Marvellous comes out best at the weights, but he’s not guaranteed to produce his best on soft ground. That comment also applies to Danzeno. Stake Acclaim could go close as he relishes soft ground, but he has a tough-looking draw in stall-4.

Free Tips for Rous Stakes 2019

A chance is taken on Intense Romance who is drawn in stall-8. She’s won both her course and distance starts on soft to heavy ground and she was in great form at this time last year. The first-time booking of Silvestre De Sousa suggests connections think she’s back in form.

TipIntense Romance (Each Way) @ 13.00 with Bet365


Cumberland Lodge Stakes 2019 Analysis

14:35 at Ascot on 5th October

The Cumberland Lodge Stakes is a Group 3 run over 1 mile 3 furlongs and 211 yards. The last 10 winners were all aged three or four and only one of those carried a penalty to success. Six winners in the last decade had won their previous start, with none finishing worse than sixth.

Recent winners have been well-found in the market with nine of them returned at 11/2 or less, with the other one only being 8/1.

A tricky race to weight up, as the four 3-year-olds and two 4-year-olds have yet to prove themselves on ground as soft as it is forecast to be. The second-favourite Faylaq is also taking a massive step-up in class after winning on the all-weather last time. Raakib Alhawa, Surrey Thunder, and Vivid Diamond also have a bit to find with the top-rated horse, whilst Wells Fargo has been beaten a long way in good company on his last two starts.

Free Tips for Cumberland Lodge Stakes 2019

The soft-ground loving Morando is the obvious pick. He is older than ideal at the age of six, and must carry a 3lb penalty, but he still comes out second-best at the weights and finished well in front of Sextant on these terms on soft ground last time. But, if the ground does dry up, confidence would weaken.

TipMorando @ 2.75 with William Hill

Bengough Stakes 2019 Analysis

15:40 at Ascot on 5th October

This Group 3 race is run over 6 furlongs. It has been run four times on soft ground in the last four years and three winners have come from a high draw and one form a middle draw. Only one winner in the last decade has carried a penalty but that was the brilliant Blue Point. There have been winners returned at 11/1 and 16/1 in the last decade, but the last three have been returned at evens, 7/4, and 2/1.

Five horses in this year’s field are rated over 100 and it will be a surprise if the others prove good enough to bridge the gap. Old-favourite Donjuan Triumphant will love the conditions and could go well, but Raccous has recently returned to form on faster ground. Meanwhile, Keystroke is penalised. The early favourite Tabdeed is also an unknown factor on soft ground and is taking a big step-up in class.

Free Tips for Bengough Stakes 2019

Cape Byron looks the one to be on. He was taken off his feet in the July Cup on fast ground but should relish the soft ground. He also romped home on his one run over course and distance and the runner-up franked that form at Royal Ascot.

TipCape Byron @ 3.50 with Bet365

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