Qipco 2,000 Guineas Stakes Analysis
15:35 at Newmarket Racecourse on 6th June
Your decision to back Pinatubo to win the 2,000 Guineas may well rest on whether you like backing the best horse on ratings to win or taking a chance that he’ll have an off day or something will have improved past him since last season.
The case for backing Pinatubo is a compelling one, as he’s rated 12lb superior to his nearest rival. Four champion 2-year-olds in the last decade have also gone onto to win the 2,000 Guineas, with Pinatubo rated higher than all of them at the same stage of their careers, including the mighty Frankel.
Pinatubo’s owner Godolphin’s decision to also enter both Al Suhail and Military March is a little worrying, but it may simply be that Godolphin think both these useful colts are also capable of picking up prize money before probably stepping up in distance.
Aidan O’Brien has saddled five of the last eight winners of the 2,000 Guineas winners and, with just two of those being Champion 2-year-olds, it shows that many of his horses are bred to improve as 3-year-olds. Ryan Moore has opted to ride Arizona, but he has 2-lengths to make up with Pinatubo from when they last met. O’Brien also saddles Wichita, Royal Dornoch, and New World Tapestry.
Five of the last 10 winners were unbeaten, so Cepheus, Kenzai Warrior, and Starcat join Pinatubo and Military March on that list, but they do have a lot to find. Juan Elcano is another with lots to find on official ratings.
Kinross was an impressive winner on debut at Newmarket, but he disappointed on Newcastle’s all-weather surface behind Kameko, but both could go well. Mum’s Tipple is the second highest-rated horse in the field but was a big disappointment in Group1 company when last seen.